ATLFalcons
6-6
21
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
042
MINVikings
10-2
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
7
3
11
0
21
Vikings
7
7
7
21
42
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
498
433
Total Plays
71
56
Yards / Play
7.0
7.7
EPA / Play
+0.00
+0.42
Passing Yards
338
318
Comp/Att
23/37(62%)
22/28(79%)
Yards / Pass
9.1
11.4
EPA / Pass
+0.02
+0.84
Rushing Yards
160
115
Rush Attempts
33
24
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.19
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
23
Passing 1st downs
15
15
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
54%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
7
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-14.40
--
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-6
-29
Sack EPA
-2.82
-6.63
Penalties
12
6
Penalty Yards
127
35
Penalty EPA
-12.38
-5.18
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+117
Home nfelo
1,567
Away nfelo
1,494
Home Field
+32.8
Base HFA
+40.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.2
Net QB Adjustment
+10.4
Home QB Adjustment
+4.4
Away QB Adjustment
-6.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
-6.1
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
4
Yards / Game
6
14
Passing Yards / Game
7
31
Rushing Yards / Game
10
2
EPA
EPA / Play
15
2
EPA / Pass
15
7
EPA / Rush
11
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
4
Interceptions / Game
29
1
Fumbles / Game
6
13
Turnover EPA / Game
8
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
2
4th Down Efficiency
5
1
RZ Efficiency
20
18
Vikings Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
23
Yards / Game
12
22
Passing Yards / Game
3
3
Rushing Yards / Game
19
15
EPA
EPA / Play
17
23
EPA / Pass
17
28
EPA / Rush
23
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
25
Interceptions / Game
18
16
Fumbles / Game
19
27
Turnover EPA / Game
11
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
31
4th Down Efficiency
29
13
RZ Efficiency
19
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Vikings
8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U