NYGGiants
11-7
20
TBD
Candlestick Park
52°F
15 mph
17
SF49ers
14-3
TBD
Candlestick Park
52°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Giants
0
10
0
7
3
20
49ers
7
0
7
3
0
17
Spread
+2
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
352
328
Total Plays
90
57
Yards / Play
3.9
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.05
Passing Yards
267
178
Comp/Att
32/58(55%)
12/26(46%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
6.8
EPA / Pass
-0.04
-0.09
Rushing Yards
85
150
Rush Attempts
26
28
Yards / Rush
3.3
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
15
Passing 1st downs
17
5
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
33%
8%
3rd Down Conversions
7
1
3rd Down Attempts
21
13
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
+11.00
--
Sacks
6
3
Sack Yards
-49
-18
Sack EPA
-10.49
-3.11
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
60
50
Penalty EPA
-7.38
+2.75
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+95
Home nfelo
1,604
Away nfelo
1,629
Home Field
+117.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
-6.7
Home QB Adjustment
+13.6
Away QB Adjustment
+20.3
Market Regression
-13.3
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+20.3
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+13.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
2
Yards / Game
8
7
Passing Yards / Game
3
29
Rushing Yards / Game
29
1
EPA
EPA / Play
5
1
EPA / Pass
5
5
EPA / Rush
26
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
7
Interceptions / Game
12
2
Fumbles / Game
16
1
Turnover EPA / Game
29
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
11
4th Down Efficiency
25
11
RZ Efficiency
9
4
49ers Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
20
Yards / Game
24
22
Passing Yards / Game
29
27
Rushing Yards / Game
8
18
EPA
EPA / Play
12
24
EPA / Pass
14
26
EPA / Rush
17
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
23
Interceptions / Game
1
14
Fumbles / Game
8
11
Turnover EPA / Game
32
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
16
4th Down Efficiency
3
20
RZ Efficiency
30
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
49ers
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U