NYGGiants
0-5
21
TBD
Soldier Field
63°F
10 mph
27
CHIBears
3-2
TBD
Soldier Field
63°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
7
7
7
0
21
Bears
1
17
3
0
21
Spread
+8.5
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
355
372
Total Plays
53
65
Yards / Play
6.7
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.16
Passing Yards
232
--
Comp/Att
14/26(54%)
24/36(67%)
Yards / Pass
8.9
--
EPA / Pass
-0.03
+0.24
Rushing Yards
123
110
Rush Attempts
26
29
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
26
Passing 1st downs
12
17
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
64%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-16.29
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-7
--
Sack EPA
-1.49
--
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
31
51
Penalty EPA
-3.53
-8.40
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+208
Home nfelo
1,512
Away nfelo
1,441
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+41.3
Home QB Adjustment
+18.0
Away QB Adjustment
-23.3
Market Regression
-17.0
Final Difference
207.9
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-23.3
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+18.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
30
Yards / Game
29
29
Passing Yards / Game
13
13
Rushing Yards / Game
29
32
EPA
EPA / Play
32
31
EPA / Pass
28
16
EPA / Rush
32
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
30
Interceptions / Game
32
7
Fumbles / Game
31
20
Turnover EPA / Game
1
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
25
4th Down Efficiency
15
30
RZ Efficiency
30
20
Bears Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
17
Yards / Game
7
8
Passing Yards / Game
7
2
Rushing Yards / Game
15
12
EPA
EPA / Play
7
7
EPA / Pass
6
8
EPA / Rush
8
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
20
Interceptions / Game
12
12
Fumbles / Game
17
5
Turnover EPA / Game
11
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
22
4th Down Efficiency
8
3
RZ Efficiency
7
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bears
5-5
SU
2-7-1
ATS
7-3
O/U