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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ bengals week 12, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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NYG logo
NYGGiants
3-7
19
TBD
Paycor Stadium
52°F
4 mph
17
CINBengals
2-7
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
52°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
7
3
3
6
19
Bengals
7
3
0
7
17

Spread

CIN logo
+6.5

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
386
155
Total Plays
80
46
Yards / Play
4.8
3.4
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.17
Passing Yards
--
115
Comp/Att
22/38(58%)
17/29(59%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.0
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.61
Rushing Yards
142
40
Rush Attempts
42
15
Yards / Rush
3.4
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.03
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
19
11
Passing 1st downs
11
5
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
43%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
9
3
3rd Down Attempts
21
10
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-5.93
-13.10
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-21
Sack EPA
--
-5.51
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
51
--
Penalty EPA
-6.95
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.4%
Model71.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-134
Home nfelo
1,393
Away nfelo
1,416
Home Field
+3.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-4.8
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-114.6
Home QB Adjustment
-116.8
Away QB Adjustment
-2.1
Market Regression
-39.0
Final Difference
-158.9
Model Spread
+6.5

Quarterbacks

D. Jones headshot

D. Jones

Proj. Value
-0.0
Team Elo Adj
-2.1
Value
Ptile
09/14
0.3
48
09/20
-4.0
19
09/27
-3.7
20
10/04
-5.0
15
10/11
-4.8
16
10/18
-1.0
38
10/22
3.5
70
11/02
-1.6
32
11/08
-4.3
17
11/15
4.3
75
B. Allen headshot

B. Allen

Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-116.8
Value
Ptile
11/03
-1.7
40
11/17
-4.4
23
11/24
-10.9
3

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Bengals Defense
Giants logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
31
21
Yards / Game
31
25
Passing Yards / Game
26
2
Rushing Yards / Game
19
29

EPA

EPA / Play
28
26
EPA / Pass
27
24
EPA / Rush
19
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
6
Interceptions / Game
11
20
Fumbles / Game
30
24
Turnover EPA / Game
12
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
20
4th Down Efficiency
8
24
RZ Efficiency
31
26
Bengals Offense vs Giants Defense
Bengals logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
29
9
Yards / Game
30
12
Passing Yards / Game
27
26
Rushing Yards / Game
23
11

EPA

EPA / Play
25
15
EPA / Pass
23
17
EPA / Rush
30
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
2
Interceptions / Game
11
20
Fumbles / Game
27
13
Turnover EPA / Game
6
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
24
4th Down Efficiency
4
22
RZ Efficiency
29
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

3-7
SU
7-3
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/14
-10
L
L
U
09/20
-4
L
W
U
09/27
-27
L
L
O
10/04
-8
L
W
U
10/11
-3
L
W
O
10/18
1
W
L
U
10/22
-1
L
W
U
11/02
-2
L
W
O
11/08
3
W
W
P
11/15
10
W
W
U
CIN logo

Bengals

2-7-1
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/13
-3
L
L
U
09/17
-5
L
W
O
09/27
0
T
W
U
10/04
8
W
W
O
10/11
-24
L
L
U
10/18
-4
L
W
O
10/25
-3
L
W
O
11/01
11
W
W
O
11/15
-26
L
L
O
11/22
-11
L
L
U