NYGGiants
1-2
24
TBD
New Era Field
60°F
8 mph
10
BUFBills
2-1
TBD
New Era Field
60°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
9
7
0
8
24
Bills
3
0
0
7
10
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
305
313
Total Plays
65
68
Yards / Play
4.7
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.00
-0.27
Passing Yards
211
258
Comp/Att
20/35(57%)
28/42(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.05
-0.20
Rushing Yards
94
55
Rush Attempts
29
24
Yards / Rush
3.2
2.3
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.35
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
14
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
2
Penalty 1st downs
6
1
3rd Down %
20%
19%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.09
-6.28
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-1
-16
Sack EPA
-1.02
-2.49
Penalties
11
16
Penalty Yards
85
120
Penalty EPA
-6.72
-17.42
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model70.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+117
Home nfelo
1,556
Away nfelo
1,463
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-38.1
Home QB Adjustment
-20.9
Away QB Adjustment
+17.2
Market Regression
+16.7
Final Difference
147.7
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+17.2
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-20.9
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
15
Yards / Game
6
20
Passing Yards / Game
29
22
Rushing Yards / Game
18
16
EPA
EPA / Play
7
16
EPA / Pass
10
15
EPA / Rush
21
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
11
Interceptions / Game
17
6
Fumbles / Game
9
15
Turnover EPA / Game
14
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
23
4th Down Efficiency
8
1
RZ Efficiency
29
17
Bills Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
30
Yards / Game
13
32
Passing Yards / Game
28
13
Rushing Yards / Game
1
24
EPA
EPA / Play
12
31
EPA / Pass
14
25
EPA / Rush
2
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
28
Interceptions / Game
5
10
Fumbles / Game
11
9
Turnover EPA / Game
32
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
32
4th Down Efficiency
24
22
RZ Efficiency
26
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bills
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U