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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ bills week 4, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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NYG logo
NYGGiants
1-2
24
TBD
New Era Field
60°F
8 mph
10
BUFBills
2-1
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
60°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
9
7
0
8
24
Bills
3
0
0
7
10

Spread

NYG logo
+6.5

Total

UNDER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
305
313
Total Plays
65
68
Yards / Play
4.7
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.00
-0.27
Passing Yards
211
258
Comp/Att
20/35(57%)
28/42(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.05
-0.20
Rushing Yards
94
55
Rush Attempts
29
24
Yards / Rush
3.2
2.3
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.35
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
18
14
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
2
Penalty 1st downs
6
1
3rd Down %
20%
19%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.09
-6.28
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-1
-16
Sack EPA
-1.02
-2.49
Penalties
11
16
Penalty Yards
85
120
Penalty EPA
-6.72
-17.42

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model70.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+118
Home nfelo
1,556
Away nfelo
1,463
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-38.1
Home QB Adjustment
-20.9
Away QB Adjustment
+17.2
Market Regression
+16.9
Final Difference
147.9
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+17.2
Value
Ptile
11/16
-10.4
2
11/23
5.4
84
11/30
-0.6
46
12/07
0.7
54
12/14
4.3
79
12/21
10.4
97
12/28
3.1
72
09/13
-2.9
30
09/20
4.9
82
09/24
5.5
85
T. Taylor headshot

T. Taylor

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-20.9
Value
Ptile
09/20
-1.9
36
09/27
7.7
93

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Bills Defense
Giants logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
4
15
Yards / Game
6
20
Passing Yards / Game
29
22
Rushing Yards / Game
18
16

EPA

EPA / Play
7
16
EPA / Pass
10
15
EPA / Rush
21
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
11
Interceptions / Game
17
6
Fumbles / Game
9
15
Turnover EPA / Game
14
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
23
4th Down Efficiency
8
1
RZ Efficiency
29
17
Bills Offense vs Giants Defense
Bills logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
12
30
Yards / Game
13
32
Passing Yards / Game
28
13
Rushing Yards / Game
1
24

EPA

EPA / Play
12
31
EPA / Pass
14
25
EPA / Rush
2
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
28
Interceptions / Game
5
10
Fumbles / Game
11
9
Turnover EPA / Game
32
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
32
4th Down Efficiency
24
22
RZ Efficiency
26
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/16
-6
L
L
U
11/23
-3
L
W
O
11/30
-1
L
L
O
12/07
29
W
W
U
12/14
11
W
W
U
12/21
10
W
W
O
12/28
-8
L
L
O
09/13
-1
L
W
O
09/20
-4
L
L
U
09/24
11
W
W
O
BUF logo

Bills

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/13
-13
L
L
U
11/24
35
W
W
U
11/30
16
W
W
U
12/07
-7
L
W
U
12/14
8
W
W
U
12/21
-2
L
L
O
12/28
8
W
W
U
09/13
13
W
W
U
09/20
-8
L
L
O
09/27
27
W
W
O