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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ buccaneers week 3, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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NYG logo
NYGGiants
2-0
24
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
88°F
12 mph
0
TBBuccaneers
0-2
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
88°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
7
7
3
7
24
Buccaneers
0
0
0
0
0

Spread

NYG logo
-6.5

Total

UNDER
46

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
397
86
Total Plays
76
36
Yards / Play
5.2
2.4
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.47
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
16/27(59%)
11/26(42%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.43
-0.64
Rushing Yards
226
28
Rush Attempts
49
10
Yards / Rush
4.6
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
27
5
Passing 1st downs
12
2
Rushing 1st downs
12
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
63%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
10
--
3rd Down Attempts
16
9
Red Zone %
60%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.24
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
60
25
Penalty EPA
-4.44
-3.48

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market71.4%
Model69.0%
Spread Pick
TB logo
Buccaneers+6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+1.4%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-106
Home nfelo
1,420
Away nfelo
1,596
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-13.7
Home QB Adjustment
-2.5
Away QB Adjustment
+11.2
Market Regression
+10.6
Final Difference
-138.6
Model Spread
+5.5

Quarterbacks

E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.2
Value
Ptile
11/16
-2.3
33
11/23
7.5
93
11/30
1.9
65
12/07
-0.5
48
12/14
-12.6
0
12/21
-1.4
41
12/28
-2.1
35
01/11
-3.7
24
09/13
1.5
59
09/20
8.6
94
B. Leftwich headshot

B. Leftwich

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-2.5
Value
Ptile
09/10
4.2
79
09/18
1.5
60
09/24
-3.3
28
10/01
2.2
66
10/08
-0.1
49
10/22
-4.4
21
10/21
0.0
49
11/18
-7.5
6
09/13
4.9
81
09/20
-0.9
44

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Giants logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
8
27
Yards / Game
9
26
Passing Yards / Game
6
11
Rushing Yards / Game
17
32

EPA

EPA / Play
8
19
EPA / Pass
8
22
EPA / Rush
16
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
20
Interceptions / Game
10
9
Fumbles / Game
30
23
Turnover EPA / Game
12
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
23
4th Down Efficiency
9
26
RZ Efficiency
20
14
Buccaneers Offense vs Giants Defense
Buccaneers logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
30
30
Yards / Game
28
13
Passing Yards / Game
25
13
Rushing Yards / Game
22
13

EPA

EPA / Play
31
30
EPA / Pass
28
23
EPA / Rush
24
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
20
Interceptions / Game
31
22
Fumbles / Game
2
12
Turnover EPA / Game
4
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
16
4th Down Efficiency
23
27
RZ Efficiency
14
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
2-0-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/16
20
W
W
P
11/23
8
W
W
P
11/30
16
W
W
P
12/07
-6
L
L
P
12/14
-12
L
L
P
12/21
6
W
W
P
12/28
-1
L
W
P
01/11
-12
L
L
P
09/13
6
W
P
O
09/20
2
W
W
O
TB logo

Buccaneers

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
2-0-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/02
3
W
L
P
11/16
6
W
W
P
11/23
18
W
W
P
11/30
3
W
L
P
12/08
-15
L
L
P
12/14
-3
L
W
P
12/21
-17
L
L
P
12/28
-7
L
L
P
09/13
-13
L
L
O
09/20
-13
L
L
O