NYGGiants
0-3
23
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
91°F
8 mph
25
TBBuccaneers
1-1
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
91°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
10
7
6
23
Buccaneers
13
3
0
9
25
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
379
434
Total Plays
77
63
Yards / Play
4.9
6.9
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.03
Passing Yards
--
323
Comp/Att
30/49(61%)
22/39(56%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.15
Rushing Yards
91
111
Rush Attempts
28
23
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
20
Passing 1st downs
17
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
47%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-9
Sack EPA
--
-2.08
Penalties
1
4
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+67
Home nfelo
1,486
Away nfelo
1,491
Home Field
+77.3
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-4.6
Home QB Adjustment
-4.5
Away QB Adjustment
+0.1
Market Regression
-73.4
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.1
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-4.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
22
Yards / Game
22
32
Passing Yards / Game
32
3
Rushing Yards / Game
26
23
EPA
EPA / Play
32
28
EPA / Pass
27
29
EPA / Rush
27
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
13
Interceptions / Game
20
15
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
16
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
32
4th Down Efficiency
25
1
RZ Efficiency
24
18
Buccaneers Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
27
Yards / Game
7
31
Passing Yards / Game
1
7
Rushing Yards / Game
27
26
EPA
EPA / Play
13
18
EPA / Pass
11
21
EPA / Rush
25
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
19
Interceptions / Game
20
15
Fumbles / Game
32
23
Turnover EPA / Game
8
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
21
4th Down Efficiency
13
4
RZ Efficiency
23
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Buccaneers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-6-1
O/U