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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ buccaneers week 4, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYG logo
NYGGiants
0-3
23
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
91°F
8 mph
25
TBBuccaneers
1-1
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
91°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
10
7
6
23
Buccaneers
13
3
0
9
25

Spread

NYG logo
+2.5

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
379
434
Total Plays
77
63
Yards / Play
4.9
6.9
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.03
Passing Yards
--
323
Comp/Att
30/49(61%)
22/39(56%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.15
Rushing Yards
91
111
Rush Attempts
28
23
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
24
20
Passing 1st downs
17
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
47%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-9
Sack EPA
--
-2.08
Penalties
1
4
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+69
Home nfelo
1,486
Away nfelo
1,490
Home Field
+78.3
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-4.6
Home QB Adjustment
-4.5
Away QB Adjustment
+0.1
Market Regression
-73.4
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.1
Value
Ptile
11/27
0.2
50
12/04
-3.5
23
12/11
-6.7
9
12/18
0.7
54
12/22
-1.0
41
01/01
-2.7
28
01/08
-2.2
33
09/10
-2.9
33
09/18
-4.7
21
09/24
7.8
93
J. Winston headshot

J. Winston

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-4.5
Value
Ptile
11/13
0.0
49
11/20
4.5
81
11/27
3.7
76
12/04
0.0
48
12/11
-3.6
22
12/18
-9.4
3
12/24
-1.0
41
01/01
-3.9
20
09/17
-1.8
40
09/24
-0.1
50

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Giants logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
31
22
Yards / Game
22
32
Passing Yards / Game
32
3
Rushing Yards / Game
26
23

EPA

EPA / Play
32
28
EPA / Pass
27
29
EPA / Rush
27
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
13
Interceptions / Game
20
15
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
16
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
32
4th Down Efficiency
25
1
RZ Efficiency
24
18
Buccaneers Offense vs Giants Defense
Buccaneers logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
18
27
Yards / Game
7
31
Passing Yards / Game
1
7
Rushing Yards / Game
27
26

EPA

EPA / Play
13
18
EPA / Pass
11
21
EPA / Rush
25
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
19
Interceptions / Game
20
15
Fumbles / Game
32
23
Turnover EPA / Game
8
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
21
4th Down Efficiency
13
4
RZ Efficiency
23
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/27
14
W
W
U
12/04
-10
L
L
U
12/11
3
W
W
U
12/18
11
W
W
U
12/22
-5
L
L
O
01/01
9
W
W
U
01/08
-25
L
L
O
09/10
-16
L
L
U
09/18
-14
L
L
U
09/24
-3
L
W
O
TB logo

Buccaneers

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/13
26
W
W
O
11/20
2
W
W
U
11/27
9
W
W
U
12/04
7
W
W
P
12/11
5
W
W
U
12/18
-6
L
W
U
12/24
-7
L
L
O
01/01
1
W
L
U
09/17
22
W
W
U
09/24
-17
L
L
O