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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ chargers week 14, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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NYG logo
NYGGiants
4-8
21
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
37
LACChargers
7-5
LAC logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
7
0
0
14
21
Chargers
7
17
6
7
37

Spread

LAC logo
-9

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
318
423
Total Plays
67
70
Yards / Play
4.7
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.16
Passing Yards
181
271
Comp/Att
17/38(45%)
23/31(74%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
8.7
EPA / Pass
-0.37
+0.46
Rushing Yards
137
152
Rush Attempts
27
37
Yards / Rush
5.1
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.34
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
20
26
Passing 1st downs
8
15
Rushing 1st downs
10
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
50%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.50
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-10
-4
Sack EPA
-4.92
-2.43
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
20
39
Penalty EPA
-1.13
-3.14

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0

Win Probability

Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+203
Home nfelo
1,527
Away nfelo
1,404
Home Field
+44.6
Base HFA
+37.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.8
Net QB Adjustment
+35.6
Home QB Adjustment
+23.1
Away QB Adjustment
-12.5
Market Regression
-28.3
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0

Quarterbacks

M. Glennon headshot

M. Glennon

Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-12.5
Value
Ptile
09/10
-2.6
35
09/17
0.7
57
09/24
-4.7
20
09/28
-3.7
26
11/29
1.9
58
12/06
-1.9
29
12/13
-8.4
5
12/27
-1.8
30
01/03
-3.6
21
12/05
-8.6
6
J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+23.1
Value
Ptile
09/26
7.2
92
10/04
1.4
63
10/10
11.6
98
10/17
-3.9
24
10/31
-5.2
18
11/07
11.9
98
11/14
-2.6
34
11/21
13.7
99
11/28
0.9
60
12/05
6.5
89

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Chargers Defense
Giants logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
31
29
Yards / Game
31
23
Passing Yards / Game
32
23
Rushing Yards / Game
23
30

EPA

EPA / Play
31
25
EPA / Pass
31
17
EPA / Rush
24
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
27
Interceptions / Game
29
22
Fumbles / Game
25
7
Turnover EPA / Game
2
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
32
4th Down Efficiency
26
1
RZ Efficiency
32
27
Chargers Offense vs Giants Defense
Chargers logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
5
23
Yards / Game
4
21
Passing Yards / Game
5
17
Rushing Yards / Game
21
25

EPA

EPA / Play
7
20
EPA / Pass
7
19
EPA / Rush
16
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
16
Interceptions / Game
21
13
Fumbles / Game
7
18
Turnover EPA / Game
15
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
17
4th Down Efficiency
4
29
RZ Efficiency
3
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/26
-3
L
L
U
10/03
6
W
W
O
10/10
-24
L
L
O
10/17
-27
L
L
U
10/24
22
W
W
U
11/01
-3
L
W
U
11/07
7
W
W
U
11/22
-20
L
L
U
11/28
6
W
W
U
12/05
-11
L
L
U
LAC logo

Chargers

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/26
6
W
W
U
10/04
14
W
W
U
10/10
5
W
W
O
10/17
-28
L
L
U
10/31
-3
L
L
O
11/07
3
W
W
O
11/14
-7
L
L
U
11/21
4
W
L
O
11/28
-15
L
L
U
12/05
19
W
W
O