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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ commanders week 1, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NYG logo
NYGGiants
-
14
TBD
FedExField
87°F
5 mph
28
WASCommanders
-
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
87°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
7
7
0
0
14
Commanders
0
14
1
7
22

Spread

WAS logo
+1.5

Total

OVER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
315
310
Total Plays
56
63
Yards / Play
5.6
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.22
+0.01
Passing Yards
240
258
Comp/Att
18/32(56%)
21/34(62%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.10
+0.32
Rushing Yards
75
52
Rush Attempts
20
25
Yards / Rush
3.8
2.1
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
15
20
Passing 1st downs
10
17
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
10%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
1
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.72
-5.73
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-28
-47
Sack EPA
-4.11
-10.37
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
63
25
Penalty EPA
-7.63
-2.82

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-69
Home nfelo
1,463
Away nfelo
1,562
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-25.7
Home QB Adjustment
-23.1
Away QB Adjustment
+2.6
Market Regression
+66.7
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.6
Value
Ptile
10/25
4.5
79
11/07
8.1
93
11/14
6.2
88
11/21
-1.4
41
11/28
2.1
62
12/05
-3.8
25
12/13
-3.6
25
12/19
4.5
80
12/26
-1.9
37
01/02
0.2
50
R. Grossman headshot

R. Grossman

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-23.1
Value
Ptile
09/16
-6.2
11
09/23
-9.7
2
11/18
-0.8
43
11/25
-5.2
17
12/02
-2.3
35
12/06
-5.6
15
11/09
-0.6
47
12/19
-1.3
41
12/26
-4.6
20
01/02
2.4
65

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Giants logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
7
21
Yards / Game
8
12
Passing Yards / Game
3
21
Rushing Yards / Game
29
17

EPA

EPA / Play
5
20
EPA / Pass
5
19
EPA / Rush
26
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
12
Interceptions / Game
12
22
Fumbles / Game
16
28
Turnover EPA / Game
29
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
17
4th Down Efficiency
25
12
RZ Efficiency
9
6
Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Commanders logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
26
20
Yards / Game
16
22
Passing Yards / Game
8
27
Rushing Yards / Game
27
18

EPA

EPA / Play
22
24
EPA / Pass
22
26
EPA / Rush
15
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
23
Interceptions / Game
29
14
Fumbles / Game
24
11
Turnover EPA / Game
6
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
16
4th Down Efficiency
29
20
RZ Efficiency
28
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/25
6
W
W
O
11/07
34
W
W
O
11/14
-13
L
L
O
11/21
-10
L
L
U
11/28
4
W
L
O
12/05
24
W
W
U
12/13
18
W
W
U
12/19
-7
L
L
O
12/26
-28
L
L
O
01/02
3
W
L
U
WAS logo

Commanders

3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/24
3
W
W
U
10/31
-12
L
L
O
11/15
-31
L
L
O
11/21
3
W
W
U
11/28
-4
L
L
U
12/05
-24
L
L
U
12/12
-1
L
P
U
12/19
-3
L
W
O
12/26
3
W
W
U
01/02
-3
L
W
U