NYGGiants
-
6
TBD
FedExField
68°F
5 mph
21
WASCommanders
-
TBD
FedExField
68°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
3
3
0
6
Commanders
7
7
0
7
21
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
231
432
Total Plays
62
65
Yards / Play
3.7
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.15
+0.09
Passing Yards
157
212
Comp/Att
17/37(46%)
19/30(63%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
7.1
EPA / Pass
-0.31
+0.05
Rushing Yards
74
220
Rush Attempts
23
32
Yards / Rush
3.2
6.9
EPA / Rush
-0.15
+0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
25
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
11
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
25%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-11
-21
Sack EPA
-2.81
-3.34
Penalties
6
12
Penalty Yards
35
89
Penalty EPA
-5.70
-18.15
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model70.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+199
Home nfelo
1,544
Away nfelo
1,372
Home Field
+34.7
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
-17.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.5
Home QB Adjustment
+10.2
Away QB Adjustment
+17.7
Market Regression
-3.8
Final Difference
153.3
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+17.7
J. Daniels
Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
28
Yards / Game
15
31
Passing Yards / Game
9
19
Rushing Yards / Game
10
27
EPA
EPA / Play
13
31
EPA / Pass
20
31
EPA / Rush
9
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
14
Interceptions / Game
14
26
Fumbles / Game
15
28
Turnover EPA / Game
18
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
24
4th Down Efficiency
19
14
RZ Efficiency
27
23
Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
29
Yards / Game
18
29
Passing Yards / Game
12
15
Rushing Yards / Game
6
30
EPA
EPA / Play
12
29
EPA / Pass
16
22
EPA / Rush
10
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
8
Interceptions / Game
14
28
Fumbles / Game
23
28
Turnover EPA / Game
9
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
18
4th Down Efficiency
15
25
RZ Efficiency
2
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Commanders
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U