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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ commanders week 1, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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NYG logo
NYGGiants
-
6
TBD
FedExField
68°F
5 mph
21
WASCommanders
-
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
68°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
3
3
0
6
Commanders
7
7
0
7
21

Spread

WAS logo
-6

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
231
432
Total Plays
62
65
Yards / Play
3.7
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.15
+0.09
Passing Yards
157
212
Comp/Att
17/37(46%)
19/30(63%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
7.1
EPA / Pass
-0.31
+0.05
Rushing Yards
74
220
Rush Attempts
23
32
Yards / Rush
3.2
6.9
EPA / Rush
-0.15
+0.24
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
17
25
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
11
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
25%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-11
-21
Sack EPA
-2.81
-3.34
Penalties
6
12
Penalty Yards
35
89
Penalty EPA
-5.70
-18.15

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model70.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+195
Home nfelo
1,543
Away nfelo
1,375
Home Field
+34.5
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
-17.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.5
Home QB Adjustment
+10.2
Away QB Adjustment
+17.7
Market Regression
-3.0
Final Difference
152.4
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+17.7
Value
Ptile
11/10
-4.3
21
11/17
-6.7
9
11/21
1.8
61
12/01
7.2
91
12/08
1.1
56
12/15
-2.5
31
12/21
1.6
60
12/25
-2.0
35
01/04
-4.6
19
01/11
2.3
65
J. Daniels headshot

J. Daniels

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+10.2
Value
Ptile
11/14
-2.8
29
11/24
3.9
75
12/01
6.0
84
12/15
1.0
55
12/22
9.1
95
12/29
4.9
79
01/05
-9.0
4
01/12
3.5
72
01/18
7.2
91
01/26
2.8
68

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Giants logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
19
27
Yards / Game
13
32
Passing Yards / Game
6
26
Rushing Yards / Game
5
31

EPA

EPA / Play
17
31
EPA / Pass
20
32
EPA / Rush
6
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
15
Interceptions / Game
11
27
Fumbles / Game
11
29
Turnover EPA / Game
23
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
23
4th Down Efficiency
25
27
RZ Efficiency
28
30
Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Commanders logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
25
25
Yards / Game
21
29
Passing Yards / Game
13
14
Rushing Yards / Game
4
30

EPA

EPA / Play
18
27
EPA / Pass
22
17
EPA / Rush
7
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
10
Interceptions / Game
16
24
Fumbles / Game
23
22
Turnover EPA / Game
7
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
13
4th Down Efficiency
10
29
RZ Efficiency
7
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/28
-8
L
L
O
11/03
-5
L
L
O
11/10
-3
L
L
U
11/24
-23
L
L
U
11/28
-7
L
L
O
12/08
-3
L
W
U
12/15
-21
L
L
O
12/22
-27
L
L
U
12/29
12
W
W
O
01/05
-7
L
L
U
WAS logo

Commanders

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/14
-8
L
L
U
11/24
-8
L
L
O
12/01
23
W
W
O
12/15
1
W
L
U
12/22
3
W
W
O
12/29
6
W
W
O
01/05
4
W
L
U
01/12
3
W
W
U
01/18
14
W
W
O
01/26
-32
L
L
O