NYGGiants
2-8
31
TBD
FedExField
56°F
7 mph
19
WASCommanders
4-6
TBD
FedExField
56°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
7
7
0
11
25
Commanders
3
6
3
7
19
Spread
+7.5
Total
OVER
39
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
292
404
Total Plays
54
77
Yards / Play
5.4
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.19
Passing Yards
201
230
Comp/Att
18/26(69%)
31/45(69%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.15
-0.32
Rushing Yards
91
174
Rush Attempts
19
28
Yards / Rush
4.8
6.2
EPA / Rush
-0.27
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
28
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
13
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
36%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
6
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
--
-28.65
Sacks
9
4
Sack Yards
-45
-26
Sack EPA
-11.78
-4.16
Penalties
5
1
Penalty Yards
33
--
Penalty EPA
-5.27
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+219
Home nfelo
1,481
Away nfelo
1,385
Home Field
+39.6
Base HFA
+44.1
Divisional Adj
-19.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+83.1
Home QB Adjustment
+13.7
Away QB Adjustment
-69.5
Market Regression
-12.1
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
T. DeVito
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-69.5
Value
Ptile
S. Howell
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
+13.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
32
Yards / Game
29
32
Passing Yards / Game
29
7
Rushing Yards / Game
16
27
EPA
EPA / Play
30
32
EPA / Pass
29
32
EPA / Rush
29
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
2
Interceptions / Game
15
29
Fumbles / Game
6
13
Turnover EPA / Game
21
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
26
4th Down Efficiency
20
29
RZ Efficiency
31
19
Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
26
Yards / Game
24
27
Passing Yards / Game
6
5
Rushing Yards / Game
26
29
EPA
EPA / Play
26
17
EPA / Pass
26
12
EPA / Rush
10
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
1
Interceptions / Game
30
3
Fumbles / Game
22
1
Turnover EPA / Game
2
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
10
4th Down Efficiency
10
20
RZ Efficiency
6
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Commanders
4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U