NYGGiants
2-8
10
TBD
FedExField
33°F
020
WASCommanders
4-6
TBD
FedExField
33°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
3
1
0
4
Commanders
0
3
7
10
20
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
170
323
Total Plays
56
68
Yards / Play
3.0
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.44
-0.22
Passing Yards
86
201
Comp/Att
13/27(48%)
19/31(61%)
Yards / Pass
3.2
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.65
-0.32
Rushing Yards
84
122
Rush Attempts
24
31
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
7
17
Passing 1st downs
6
10
Rushing 1st downs
1
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
14%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.45
-8.01
Sacks
5
6
Sack Yards
-27
-41
Sack EPA
-9.41
-9.99
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
79
--
Penalty EPA
-6.78
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+135
Home nfelo
1,480
Away nfelo
1,404
Home Field
+50.1
Base HFA
+55.8
Divisional Adj
-25.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.2
Home QB Adjustment
+7.8
Away QB Adjustment
-1.3
Market Regression
-4.0
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-1.3
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+7.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
27
Yards / Game
22
22
Passing Yards / Game
32
15
Rushing Yards / Game
26
32
EPA
EPA / Play
32
13
EPA / Pass
27
8
EPA / Rush
27
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
12
Interceptions / Game
20
9
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
16
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
7
4th Down Efficiency
25
23
RZ Efficiency
24
11
Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
27
Yards / Game
17
31
Passing Yards / Game
14
7
Rushing Yards / Game
28
26
EPA
EPA / Play
25
18
EPA / Pass
14
21
EPA / Rush
29
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
19
Interceptions / Game
17
15
Fumbles / Game
25
23
Turnover EPA / Game
6
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
21
4th Down Efficiency
6
4
RZ Efficiency
17
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Commanders
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U