NYGGiants
7-4
16
TBD
FedExField
55°F
1 mph
17
WASCommanders
5-6
TBD
FedExField
55°F
1 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
3
10
3
0
16
Commanders
7
3
0
7
17
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
390
370
Total Plays
63
52
Yards / Play
6.2
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.18
Passing Yards
273
--
Comp/Att
20/33(61%)
13/21(62%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
--
EPA / Pass
+0.38
+0.24
Rushing Yards
117
207
Rush Attempts
29
31
Yards / Rush
4.0
6.7
EPA / Rush
+0.08
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
20
Passing 1st downs
12
7
Rushing 1st downs
7
13
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
60%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
8
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.40
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-7
--
Sack EPA
-1.62
--
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
73
56
Penalty EPA
-7.65
-5.36
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model58.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-21
Home nfelo
1,474
Away nfelo
1,605
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+54.6
Home QB Adjustment
+41.3
Away QB Adjustment
-13.4
Market Regression
-42.5
Final Difference
-58.5
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-13.4
R. Griffin
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+41.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
22
Yards / Game
16
28
Passing Yards / Game
32
32
Rushing Yards / Game
14
9
EPA
EPA / Play
3
23
EPA / Pass
12
21
EPA / Rush
7
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
21
Interceptions / Game
14
4
Fumbles / Game
13
15
Turnover EPA / Game
24
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
31
4th Down Efficiency
17
23
RZ Efficiency
13
14
Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
10
Yards / Game
9
31
Passing Yards / Game
15
13
Rushing Yards / Game
1
24
EPA
EPA / Play
7
20
EPA / Pass
6
22
EPA / Rush
2
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
32
Interceptions / Game
3
3
Fumbles / Game
6
12
Turnover EPA / Game
30
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
30
4th Down Efficiency
6
17
RZ Efficiency
5
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Commanders
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U