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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ commanders week 17, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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NYG logo
NYGGiants
9-6
17
TBD
FedExField
37°F
7 mph
14
WASCommanders
6-9
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
37°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
3
7
7
0
17
Commanders
0
7
0
7
14

Spread

WAS logo
+4.5

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
325
385
Total Plays
61
66
Yards / Play
5.3
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.25
Passing Yards
--
318
Comp/Att
17/29(59%)
26/44(59%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.20
-0.15
Rushing Yards
82
67
Rush Attempts
32
20
Yards / Rush
2.6
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.29
-0.35
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
14
20
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
31%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
-3.80
-18.72
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-18
Sack EPA
--
-9.06
Penalties
2
4
Penalty Yards
--
25
Penalty EPA
--
-2.97

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market66.6%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
NYG logo
Giants-4.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+1.0%
Cover Probability
52.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-176
Home nfelo
1,425
Away nfelo
1,577
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-79.7
Home QB Adjustment
-77.2
Away QB Adjustment
+2.6
Market Regression
-0.3
Final Difference
-141.5
Model Spread
+6.0

Quarterbacks

E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.6
Value
Ptile
10/17
0.9
54
10/25
4.5
79
11/07
8.1
93
11/14
6.2
88
11/21
-1.4
41
11/28
2.1
62
12/05
-3.8
25
12/13
-3.6
25
12/19
4.5
80
12/26
-1.9
37
R. Grossman headshot

R. Grossman

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-77.2
Value
Ptile
09/09
-5.7
14
09/16
-6.2
11
09/23
-9.7
2
11/18
-0.8
43
11/25
-5.2
17
12/02
-2.3
35
12/06
-5.6
15
11/09
-0.6
47
12/19
-1.3
41
12/26
-4.6
20

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Giants logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
9
22
Yards / Game
4
31
Passing Yards / Game
32
31
Rushing Yards / Game
6
25

EPA

EPA / Play
21
12
EPA / Pass
14
26
EPA / Rush
27
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
5
Interceptions / Game
31
19
Fumbles / Game
31
10
Turnover EPA / Game
1
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
8
4th Down Efficiency
32
29
RZ Efficiency
11
13
Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Commanders logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
25
17
Yards / Game
17
7
Passing Yards / Game
4
13
Rushing Yards / Game
30
8

EPA

EPA / Play
28
3
EPA / Pass
25
3
EPA / Rush
19
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
31
Interceptions / Game
21
14
Fumbles / Game
22
1
Turnover EPA / Game
9
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
1
4th Down Efficiency
12
21
RZ Efficiency
20
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/17
8
W
L
O
10/25
6
W
W
O
11/07
34
W
W
O
11/14
-13
L
L
O
11/21
-10
L
L
U
11/28
4
W
L
O
12/05
24
W
W
U
12/13
18
W
W
U
12/19
-7
L
L
O
12/26
-28
L
L
O
WAS logo

Commanders

3-7
SU
4-4-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/17
-3
L
P
O
10/24
3
W
W
U
10/31
-12
L
L
O
11/15
-31
L
L
O
11/21
3
W
W
U
11/28
-4
L
L
U
12/05
-24
L
L
U
12/12
-1
L
P
U
12/19
-3
L
W
O
12/26
3
W
W
U