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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ cowboys week 1, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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NYG logo
NYGGiants
-
20
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
19
DALCowboys
-
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
13
0
7
20
Cowboys
3
6
7
3
19

Spread

NYG logo
+0

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
316
328
Total Plays
54
75
Yards / Play
5.9
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.03
Passing Yards
203
--
Comp/Att
19/28(68%)
25/45(56%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
--
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.03
Rushing Yards
113
101
Rush Attempts
24
30
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
18
24
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
59%
3rd Down Conversions
5
10
3rd Down Attempts
10
17
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.12
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-4
--
Sack EPA
-1.57
--
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
40
50
Penalty EPA
-3.68
-5.46

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
+3.5
Current
N/A
Model
+1.0

Win Probability

Market50.0%
Model47.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+45
Home nfelo
1,506
Away nfelo
1,475
Home Field
+42.9
Base HFA
+59.0
Divisional Adj
-26.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.6
Net QB Adjustment
-28.4
Home QB Adjustment
-25.0
Away QB Adjustment
+3.4
Market Regression
-71.4
Final Difference
17.4
Model Spread
-1.0

Quarterbacks

E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.4
Value
Ptile
10/25
-6.2
10
11/01
10.7
98
11/08
-1.8
37
11/15
3.1
74
11/29
-6.8
8
12/06
-2.8
30
12/14
11.7
99
12/20
6.6
89
12/27
-10.1
1
01/03
0.8
55
R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
-25.0
No recent game data available

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Giants logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
27
8
Yards / Game
23
16
Passing Yards / Game
24
26
Rushing Yards / Game
29
1

EPA

EPA / Play
28
15
EPA / Pass
24
20
EPA / Rush
29
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
24
Interceptions / Game
21
26
Fumbles / Game
23
14
Turnover EPA / Game
14
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
17
4th Down Efficiency
14
23
RZ Efficiency
19
18
Cowboys Offense vs Giants Defense
Cowboys logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
5
4
Yards / Game
5
13
Passing Yards / Game
20
15
Rushing Yards / Game
2
2

EPA

EPA / Play
4
7
EPA / Pass
4
6
EPA / Rush
2
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
30
Interceptions / Game
4
8
Fumbles / Game
21
19
Turnover EPA / Game
24
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
3
4th Down Efficiency
1
15
RZ Efficiency
6
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/25
7
W
W
O
11/01
-3
L
P
O
11/08
14
W
W
O
11/15
-1
L
W
O
11/29
-6
L
L
U
12/06
-3
L
L
U
12/14
7
W
W
O
12/20
-3
L
W
O
12/27
-32
L
L
O
01/03
-5
L
L
O
DAL logo

Cowboys

2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/01
-1
L
W
U
11/08
-6
L
L
O
11/15
-4
L
L
U
11/22
10
W
W
U
11/26
-19
L
L
O
12/07
3
W
W
U
12/13
-21
L
L
U
12/19
-3
L
P
U
12/27
-10
L
L
U
01/03
-11
L
L
O