NYGGiants
1-3
16
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
88°F
8 mph
31
MIADolphins
3-1
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
88°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
4
3
3
10
Dolphins
7
10
14
0
31
Spread
-12.5
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
268
524
Total Plays
68
54
Yards / Play
3.9
9.7
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.07
Passing Yards
183
302
Comp/Att
23/32(72%)
22/30(73%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
10.1
EPA / Pass
-0.07
-0.06
Rushing Yards
85
222
Rush Attempts
29
23
Yards / Rush
2.9
9.7
EPA / Rush
-0.31
+0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
22
Passing 1st downs
10
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
29%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
8
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-21.14
Sacks
7
1
Sack Yards
-22
-6
Sack EPA
-8.53
-1.23
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
--
43
Penalty EPA
--
-0.52
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-12.5
Model
-12.5
Win Probability
Market84.1%
Model83.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+234
Home nfelo
1,576
Away nfelo
1,444
Home Field
+58.0
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+44.2
Home QB Adjustment
+25.6
Away QB Adjustment
-18.5
Market Regression
+51.1
Final Difference
286.5
Model Spread
-12.5
Quarterbacks
D. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-18.5
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+25.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
22
Yards / Game
29
11
Passing Yards / Game
29
24
Rushing Yards / Game
16
7
EPA
EPA / Play
30
22
EPA / Pass
29
13
EPA / Rush
29
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
29
Interceptions / Game
15
16
Fumbles / Game
6
5
Turnover EPA / Game
21
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
20
4th Down Efficiency
20
13
RZ Efficiency
31
26
Dolphins Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
26
Yards / Game
3
27
Passing Yards / Game
16
5
Rushing Yards / Game
7
29
EPA
EPA / Play
4
17
EPA / Pass
4
12
EPA / Rush
9
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
1
Interceptions / Game
24
3
Fumbles / Game
20
1
Turnover EPA / Game
9
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
10
4th Down Efficiency
24
20
RZ Efficiency
3
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Dolphins
4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U