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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ dolphins week 5, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYG logo
NYGGiants
1-3
16
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
88°F
8 mph
31
MIADolphins
3-1
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
88°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
4
3
3
10
Dolphins
7
10
14
0
31

Spread

MIA logo
-12.5

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
268
524
Total Plays
68
54
Yards / Play
3.9
9.7
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.07
Passing Yards
183
302
Comp/Att
23/32(72%)
22/30(73%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
10.1
EPA / Pass
-0.07
-0.06
Rushing Yards
85
222
Rush Attempts
29
23
Yards / Rush
2.9
9.7
EPA / Rush
-0.31
+0.31
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
15
22
Passing 1st downs
10
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
29%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
8
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-21.14
Sacks
7
1
Sack Yards
-22
-6
Sack EPA
-8.53
-1.23
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
--
43
Penalty EPA
--
-0.52

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-12.5
Model
-12.5

Win Probability

Market84.1%
Model83.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+234
Home nfelo
1,576
Away nfelo
1,444
Home Field
+58.0
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+44.2
Home QB Adjustment
+25.6
Away QB Adjustment
-18.5
Market Regression
+51.1
Final Difference
286.5
Model Spread
-12.5

Quarterbacks

D. Jones headshot

D. Jones

Proj. Value
+0.7
Team Elo Adj
-18.5
Value
Ptile
12/11
1.8
67
12/18
-0.0
52
12/24
2.5
72
01/01
13.4
99
01/15
5.8
88
01/21
-7.7
7
09/10
-13.3
1
09/17
6.8
90
09/21
-4.1
24
10/02
-8.6
6
T. Tagovailoa headshot

T. Tagovailoa

Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+25.6
Value
Ptile
11/13
9.0
94
11/27
-0.6
47
12/04
-2.6
31
12/11
-5.2
17
12/17
1.8
66
12/25
-3.4
25
09/10
9.4
97
09/17
0.9
55
09/24
11.6
98
10/01
0.4
52

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Giants logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
30
22
Yards / Game
29
11
Passing Yards / Game
29
24
Rushing Yards / Game
16
7

EPA

EPA / Play
30
22
EPA / Pass
29
13
EPA / Rush
29
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
29
Interceptions / Game
15
16
Fumbles / Game
6
5
Turnover EPA / Game
21
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
20
4th Down Efficiency
20
13
RZ Efficiency
31
26
Dolphins Offense vs Giants Defense
Dolphins logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
3
26
Yards / Game
3
27
Passing Yards / Game
16
5
Rushing Yards / Game
7
29

EPA

EPA / Play
4
17
EPA / Pass
4
12
EPA / Rush
9
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
1
Interceptions / Game
24
3
Fumbles / Game
20
1
Turnover EPA / Game
9
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
10
4th Down Efficiency
24
20
RZ Efficiency
3
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/18
8
W
W
U
12/24
-3
L
W
O
01/01
28
W
W
O
01/08
-6
L
W
U
01/15
7
W
W
O
01/21
-31
L
L
U
09/10
-40
L
L
U
09/17
3
W
L
O
09/21
-18
L
L
U
10/02
-21
L
L
U
MIA logo

Dolphins

4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
-6
L
L
U
12/17
-3
L
W
O
12/25
-6
L
L
U
01/01
-2
L
W
O
01/08
5
W
W
U
01/15
-3
L
W
O
09/10
2
W
W
O
09/17
7
W
W
U
09/24
50
W
W
O
10/01
-28
L
L
O