NYGGiants
8-5
0
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
034
ATLFalcons
11-2
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
0
0
0
0
Falcons
14
3
10
7
34
Spread
-1
Total
UNDER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
256
394
Total Plays
47
67
Yards / Play
5.4
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.50
+0.19
Passing Yards
159
265
Comp/Att
13/25(52%)
23/28(82%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
9.5
EPA / Pass
-0.54
+0.78
Rushing Yards
97
129
Rush Attempts
21
38
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.36
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
22
Passing 1st downs
5
16
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
40%
69%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-11.93
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-2
-5
Sack EPA
-1.48
-1.46
Penalties
2
3
Penalty Yards
25
30
Penalty EPA
-4.41
-3.31
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+38
Home nfelo
1,578
Away nfelo
1,616
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+13.4
Home QB Adjustment
+5.2
Away QB Adjustment
-8.2
Market Regression
+0.9
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-8.2
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+5.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
6
Yards / Game
16
24
Passing Yards / Game
32
23
Rushing Yards / Game
14
19
EPA
EPA / Play
3
10
EPA / Pass
12
12
EPA / Rush
7
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
28
Interceptions / Game
14
6
Fumbles / Game
13
10
Turnover EPA / Game
24
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
26
4th Down Efficiency
17
9
RZ Efficiency
13
7
Falcons Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
10
Yards / Game
6
31
Passing Yards / Game
2
13
Rushing Yards / Game
27
24
EPA
EPA / Play
9
20
EPA / Pass
3
22
EPA / Rush
30
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
32
Interceptions / Game
17
3
Fumbles / Game
2
12
Turnover EPA / Game
23
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
30
4th Down Efficiency
32
17
RZ Efficiency
9
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Falcons
8-2
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U