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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ jets week 16, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYG logo
NYGGiants
7-7
29
TBD
MetLife Stadium
35°F
9 mph
14
NYJJets
8-6
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
35°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
10
7
10
27
Jets
7
0
0
7
14

Spread

NYG logo
+3

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
332
331
Total Plays
55
89
Yards / Play
6.0
3.7
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.22
Passing Yards
217
226
Comp/Att
9/27(33%)
30/59(51%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
3.8
EPA / Pass
-0.09
-0.27
Rushing Yards
115
105
Rush Attempts
26
25
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
11
22
Passing 1st downs
5
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
27%
19%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
21
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.34
-11.68
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-8
-32
Sack EPA
-2.50
-7.34
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
45
95
Penalty EPA
-10.67
-9.95

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model63.9%
Spread Pick
NYJ logo
Jets-3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+7.0%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+137
Home nfelo
1,599
Away nfelo
1,515
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-9.4
Home QB Adjustment
-0.7
Away QB Adjustment
+8.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
99.6
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.7
Value
Ptile
10/09
0.9
59
10/16
2.5
70
10/30
6.7
89
11/06
0.4
55
11/13
2.2
67
11/20
-2.8
33
11/28
7.9
93
12/04
5.3
82
12/11
5.7
85
12/18
-8.0
6
M. Sanchez headshot

M. Sanchez

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-0.7
Value
Ptile
10/09
-0.5
48
10/17
1.8
65
10/23
1.2
61
11/06
0.3
54
11/13
-4.9
19
11/17
-4.4
22
11/27
1.3
62
12/04
0.1
53
12/11
4.5
79
12/18
-6.3
13

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Jets Defense
Giants logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
7
19
Yards / Game
8
4
Passing Yards / Game
3
7
Rushing Yards / Game
29
14

EPA

EPA / Play
5
8
EPA / Pass
5
4
EPA / Rush
26
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
13
Interceptions / Game
12
9
Fumbles / Game
16
2
Turnover EPA / Game
29
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
2
4th Down Efficiency
25
1
RZ Efficiency
9
9
Jets Offense vs Giants Defense
Jets logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
12
20
Yards / Game
26
22
Passing Yards / Game
18
27
Rushing Yards / Game
22
18

EPA

EPA / Play
21
24
EPA / Pass
25
26
EPA / Rush
13
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
23
Interceptions / Game
23
14
Fumbles / Game
29
11
Turnover EPA / Game
2
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
16
4th Down Efficiency
20
20
RZ Efficiency
4
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
-11
L
L
O
10/16
3
W
P
O
10/30
3
W
L
U
11/06
4
W
W
U
11/13
-7
L
L
O
11/20
-7
L
L
U
11/28
-25
L
L
O
12/04
-3
L
W
O
12/11
3
W
W
O
12/18
-13
L
L
U
NYJ logo

Jets

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
-9
L
L
O
10/17
18
W
W
U
10/23
6
W
W
O
11/06
16
W
W
U
11/13
-21
L
L
O
11/17
-4
L
L
U
11/27
4
W
L
O
12/04
15
W
W
O
12/11
27
W
W
O
12/18
-26
L
L
O