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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ packers week 5, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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NYG logo
NYGGiants
2-2
16
TBD
Lambeau Field
49°F
7 mph
23
GBPackers
2-1
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
49°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
6
3
7
16
Packers
7
10
0
6
23

Spread

NYG logo
GB logo
7
P

Total

UNDER
49

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
221
406
Total Plays
54
77
Yards / Play
4.1
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.03
Passing Yards
178
--
Comp/Att
18/35(51%)
23/45(51%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
--
EPA / Pass
-0.22
-0.03
Rushing Yards
43
147
Rush Attempts
15
32
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.18
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
14
23
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
2
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
31%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
13
19
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.53
-7.08
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-21
--
Sack EPA
-8.37
--
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
51
57
Penalty EPA
-0.33
-4.05

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model73.9%
Spread Pick
GB logo
Packers-7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+4.3%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+220
Home nfelo
1,594
Away nfelo
1,479
Home Field
+105.3
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.6
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-0.7
Home QB Adjustment
-0.4
Away QB Adjustment
+0.3
Market Regression
-4.3
Final Difference
181.1
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.3
Value
Ptile
11/29
-6.8
8
12/06
-2.8
30
12/14
11.7
99
12/20
6.6
89
12/27
-10.1
1
01/03
0.8
55
09/11
0.7
55
09/18
2.7
70
09/25
-0.8
42
10/03
-1.2
39
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.4
Value
Ptile
12/03
3.3
75
12/13
2.4
67
12/20
-4.3
19
12/27
-10.7
1
01/03
-2.8
31
01/10
-0.1
50
01/16
1.4
61
09/11
3.0
72
09/18
-2.7
29
09/25
3.7
76

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Packers Defense
Giants logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
27
25
Yards / Game
23
25
Passing Yards / Game
24
29
Rushing Yards / Game
29
10

EPA

EPA / Play
28
31
EPA / Pass
24
28
EPA / Rush
29
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
11
Interceptions / Game
21
8
Fumbles / Game
23
22
Turnover EPA / Game
14
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
26
4th Down Efficiency
14
24
RZ Efficiency
19
27
Packers Offense vs Giants Defense
Packers logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
4
4
Yards / Game
7
13
Passing Yards / Game
6
15
Rushing Yards / Game
22
2

EPA

EPA / Play
3
7
EPA / Pass
3
6
EPA / Rush
8
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
30
Interceptions / Game
7
8
Fumbles / Game
12
19
Turnover EPA / Game
28
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
3
4th Down Efficiency
19
15
RZ Efficiency
7
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/29
-6
L
L
U
12/06
-3
L
L
U
12/14
7
W
W
O
12/20
-3
L
W
O
12/27
-32
L
L
O
01/03
-5
L
L
O
09/11
1
W
W
U
09/18
3
W
L
U
09/25
-2
L
L
O
10/03
-14
L
L
U
GB logo

Packers

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/03
4
W
W
O
12/13
21
W
W
U
12/20
10
W
W
O
12/27
-30
L
L
U
01/03
-7
L
L
U
01/10
17
W
W
O
01/16
-6
L
W
U
09/11
4
W
W
O
09/18
-3
L
L
U
09/25
7
W
W
O