NYGGiants
12-7
21
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
017
NEPatriots
15-3
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
7
0
6
6
19
Patriots
0
10
7
0
17
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
53
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
396
349
Total Plays
72
62
Yards / Play
5.5
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.22
+0.18
Passing Yards
282
266
Comp/Att
30/40(75%)
27/41(66%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.29
+0.30
Rushing Yards
114
83
Rush Attempts
29
19
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
21
Passing 1st downs
18
15
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
45%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-1.32
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-14
-10
Sack EPA
-4.42
-1.89
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
24
28
Penalty EPA
-2.84
-5.07
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+57
Home nfelo
1,689
Away nfelo
1,641
Home Field
--
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+3.7
Home QB Adjustment
+18.4
Away QB Adjustment
+14.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.7
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+18.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
11
Yards / Game
8
31
Passing Yards / Game
3
28
Rushing Yards / Game
29
19
EPA
EPA / Play
5
27
EPA / Pass
5
27
EPA / Rush
26
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
26
Interceptions / Game
12
4
Fumbles / Game
16
25
Turnover EPA / Game
29
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
28
4th Down Efficiency
25
17
RZ Efficiency
9
18
Patriots Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
20
Yards / Game
2
22
Passing Yards / Game
2
27
Rushing Yards / Game
19
18
EPA
EPA / Play
1
24
EPA / Pass
3
26
EPA / Rush
4
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
23
Interceptions / Game
11
14
Fumbles / Game
11
11
Turnover EPA / Game
30
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
16
4th Down Efficiency
2
20
RZ Efficiency
2
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Patriots
10-0
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U