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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ raiders week 9, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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NYG logo
NYGGiants
2-6
6
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0
30
OAKRaiders
3-5
OAK logo
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
0
0
6
6
Raiders
7
17
3
3
30

Spread

OAK logo
-1.5

Total

UNDER
38.5

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
277
334
Total Plays
63
59
Yards / Play
4.4
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.45
-0.00
Passing Yards
154
--
Comp/Att
19/30(63%)
16/25(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
--
EPA / Pass
-0.67
+0.30
Rushing Yards
123
125
Rush Attempts
25
34
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
15
15
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
25%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.61
--
Sacks
8
--
Sack Yards
-46
--
Sack EPA
-11.89
--
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
OAK logo
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+64
Home nfelo
1,460
Away nfelo
1,435
Home Field
+74.0
Base HFA
+43.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.2
Time Adj
+15.5
Net QB Adjustment
-35.7
Home QB Adjustment
-59.2
Away QB Adjustment
-23.5
Market Regression
-43.1
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5

Quarterbacks

D. Jones headshot

D. Jones

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
-23.5
Value
Ptile
12/18
-0.0
52
12/24
2.5
72
01/01
13.4
99
01/15
5.8
88
01/21
-7.7
7
09/10
-13.3
1
09/17
6.8
90
09/21
-4.1
24
10/02
-8.6
6
10/08
-7.8
9
A. O'Connell headshot

A. O'Connell

Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-59.2
Value
Ptile
10/01
-6.9
11

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Raiders Defense
Giants logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
30
7
Yards / Game
29
14
Passing Yards / Game
29
27
Rushing Yards / Game
16
20

EPA

EPA / Play
30
5
EPA / Pass
29
9
EPA / Rush
29
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
20
Interceptions / Game
15
17
Fumbles / Game
6
21
Turnover EPA / Game
21
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
25
4th Down Efficiency
20
23
RZ Efficiency
31
27
Raiders Offense vs Giants Defense
Raiders logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
23
26
Yards / Game
27
27
Passing Yards / Game
32
5
Rushing Yards / Game
30
29

EPA

EPA / Play
24
17
EPA / Pass
22
12
EPA / Rush
26
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
1
Interceptions / Game
28
3
Fumbles / Game
10
1
Turnover EPA / Game
13
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
10
4th Down Efficiency
6
20
RZ Efficiency
24
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/15
7
W
W
O
01/21
-31
L
L
U
09/10
-40
L
L
U
09/17
3
W
L
O
09/21
-18
L
L
U
10/02
-21
L
L
U
10/08
-15
L
L
U
10/15
-5
L
W
U
10/22
7
W
W
U
10/29
-3
L
P
U
OAK logo

Raiders

3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
-3
L
W
O
01/07
-18
L
L
U
09/10
1
W
W
U
09/17
-28
L
L
O
09/24
-5
L
L
U
10/01
-7
L
P
U
10/09
4
W
W
U
10/15
4
W
W
U
10/22
-18
L
L
O
10/30
-12
L
L
U