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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ rams week 7, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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NYG logo
NYGGiants
3-3
17
TBD
Twickenham Stadium
55°F
12 mph
10
LARRams
3-3
LAR logo
TBD
Twickenham Stadium
55°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
4
0
7
11
Rams
10
0
0
0
10

Spread

NYG logo
-3

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
232
345
Total Plays
57
76
Yards / Play
4.1
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.16
Passing Yards
--
271
Comp/Att
24/37(65%)
32/53(60%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.1
EPA / Pass
-0.18
-0.30
Rushing Yards
36
74
Rush Attempts
20
20
Yards / Rush
1.8
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
13
20
Passing 1st downs
9
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
31%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
13
19
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.69
-19.77
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-20
Sack EPA
--
-4.26
Penalties
3
8
Penalty Yards
--
43
Penalty EPA
--
-4.63

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model56.4%
Spread Pick
LAR logo
Rams+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-7
Home nfelo
1,491
Away nfelo
1,490
Home Field
-10.9
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
-31.1
Net QB Adjustment
+2.1
Home QB Adjustment
+4.8
Away QB Adjustment
+2.7
Market Regression
-6.7
Final Difference
-44.9
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.7
Value
Ptile
12/14
11.7
99
12/20
6.6
89
12/27
-10.1
1
01/03
0.8
55
09/11
0.7
55
09/18
2.7
70
09/25
-0.8
42
10/03
-1.2
39
10/09
-4.0
19
10/16
6.5
88
C. Keenum headshot

C. Keenum

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.8
Value
Ptile
12/13
-6.3
10
12/17
1.3
60
12/27
-1.4
40
01/03
-0.8
46
09/12
-10.4
2
09/18
-2.1
34
09/25
-3.0
27
10/02
2.9
71
10/09
-5.1
15
10/16
8.9
94

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Rams Defense
Giants logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
27
22
Yards / Game
23
9
Passing Yards / Game
24
13
Rushing Yards / Game
29
16

EPA

EPA / Play
28
17
EPA / Pass
24
18
EPA / Rush
29
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
2
Interceptions / Game
21
22
Fumbles / Game
23
20
Turnover EPA / Game
14
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
10
4th Down Efficiency
14
32
RZ Efficiency
19
31
Rams Offense vs Giants Defense
Rams logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
32
4
Yards / Game
32
13
Passing Yards / Game
23
15
Rushing Yards / Game
31
2

EPA

EPA / Play
32
7
EPA / Pass
32
6
EPA / Rush
31
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
30
Interceptions / Game
30
8
Fumbles / Game
16
19
Turnover EPA / Game
1
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
3
4th Down Efficiency
28
15
RZ Efficiency
24
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/14
7
W
W
O
12/20
-3
L
W
O
12/27
-32
L
L
O
01/03
-5
L
L
O
09/11
1
W
W
U
09/18
3
W
L
U
09/25
-2
L
L
O
10/03
-14
L
L
U
10/09
-7
L
P
U
10/16
4
W
W
O
LAR logo

Rams

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/13
7
W
W
U
12/17
8
W
W
O
12/27
6
W
W
U
01/03
-3
L
L
U
09/12
-28
L
L
U
09/18
6
W
W
U
09/25
5
W
W
O
10/02
4
W
W
U
10/09
-11
L
L
O
10/16
-3
L
L
O