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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ rams week 16, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NYG logo
NYGGiants
5-9
37
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0
27
LARRams
6-8
LAR logo
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
10
10
14
3
37
Rams
3
10
7
7
27

Spread

NYG logo
+6.5

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
514
387
Total Plays
67
54
Yards / Play
7.7
7.2
EPA / Play
+0.21
-0.05
Passing Yards
386
281
Comp/Att
25/32(78%)
24/32(75%)
Yards / Pass
12.1
8.8
EPA / Pass
+0.84
+0.07
Rushing Yards
128
106
Rush Attempts
34
20
Yards / Rush
3.8
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
19
23
Passing 1st downs
13
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
47%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
8
1
3rd Down Attempts
17
6
Red Zone %
43%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
7
3
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-17.05
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-5
-9
Sack EPA
-1.69
-4.17
Penalties
12
9
Penalty Yards
149
76
Penalty EPA
-12.34
-10.26

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+148
Home nfelo
1,552
Away nfelo
1,457
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-21.2
Home QB Adjustment
+2.0
Away QB Adjustment
+23.2
Market Regression
+39.5
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+23.2
Value
Ptile
10/05
0.5
52
10/12
-9.5
4
10/19
5.9
86
11/03
2.3
68
11/09
0.6
54
11/16
-10.4
2
11/23
5.4
84
11/30
-0.6
46
12/07
0.7
54
12/14
4.3
79
S. Hill headshot

S. Hill

Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+2.0
Value
Ptile
11/21
1.3
57
11/25
-2.1
35
12/26
2.3
64
01/02
3.2
70
09/07
-7.7
9
11/16
-0.8
45
11/23
-6.4
13
11/30
1.4
60
12/07
-1.8
37
12/11
-4.8
21

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Rams Defense
Giants logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
13
16
Yards / Game
11
18
Passing Yards / Game
12
9
Rushing Yards / Game
23
14

EPA

EPA / Play
16
6
EPA / Pass
13
12
EPA / Rush
26
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
8
Interceptions / Game
15
19
Fumbles / Game
22
10
Turnover EPA / Game
9
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
15
4th Down Efficiency
31
1
RZ Efficiency
8
5
Rams Offense vs Giants Defense
Rams logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
21
22
Yards / Game
27
29
Passing Yards / Game
25
31
Rushing Yards / Game
20
30

EPA

EPA / Play
28
20
EPA / Pass
28
16
EPA / Rush
29
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
23
Interceptions / Game
19
11
Fumbles / Game
22
10
Turnover EPA / Game
2
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
4
4th Down Efficiency
22
9
RZ Efficiency
22
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/05
10
W
W
U
10/12
-27
L
L
U
10/19
-10
L
L
O
11/03
-16
L
L
O
11/09
-21
L
L
O
11/16
-6
L
L
U
11/23
-3
L
W
O
11/30
-1
L
L
O
12/07
29
W
W
U
12/14
11
W
W
U
LAR logo

Rams

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/13
-14
L
L
O
10/19
2
W
W
O
10/26
-27
L
L
U
11/02
3
W
W
U
11/09
-17
L
L
O
11/16
15
W
W
U
11/23
-3
L
W
O
11/30
52
W
W
O
12/07
24
W
W
U
12/11
-6
L
L
U