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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ ravens week 16, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYG logo
NYGGiants
8-6
14
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
51°F
7 mph
33
BALRavens
9-5
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
51°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
7
0
0
7
14
Ravens
14
10
3
6
33

Spread

BAL logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
48

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
186
533
Total Plays
45
81
Yards / Play
4.1
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.27
Passing Yards
119
--
Comp/Att
14/28(50%)
25/36(69%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.59
Rushing Yards
67
224
Rush Attempts
14
45
Yards / Rush
4.8
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
11
25
Passing 1st downs
7
17
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
20%
61%
3rd Down Conversions
2
11
3rd Down Attempts
10
18
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-31
--
Sack EPA
-4.26
--
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
52
92
Penalty EPA
-6.17
-7.79

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model53.9%
Spread Pick
BAL logo
Ravens+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+1.5%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+4
Home nfelo
1,526
Away nfelo
1,600
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+15.3
Home QB Adjustment
-2.8
Away QB Adjustment
-18.1
Market Regression
-27.0
Final Difference
-27.0
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-18.1
Value
Ptile
10/07
5.1
82
10/14
0.4
52
10/21
0.5
52
10/28
-4.6
21
11/04
-7.6
7
11/11
-7.3
9
11/25
4.8
80
12/03
2.0
62
12/09
2.3
63
12/16
-7.4
8
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-2.8
Value
Ptile
10/07
-7.5
8
10/14
1.6
60
10/21
-9.1
4
11/04
-1.0
42
11/11
8.0
92
11/18
-1.8
38
11/25
-1.5
39
12/02
-5.0
19
12/09
0.7
54
12/16
-2.5
33

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Ravens Defense
Giants logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
5
12
Yards / Game
16
23
Passing Yards / Game
32
25
Rushing Yards / Game
14
22

EPA

EPA / Play
3
16
EPA / Pass
12
14
EPA / Rush
7
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
19
Interceptions / Game
14
13
Fumbles / Game
13
11
Turnover EPA / Game
24
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
11
4th Down Efficiency
17
13
RZ Efficiency
13
1
Ravens Offense vs Giants Defense
Ravens logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
9
10
Yards / Game
11
31
Passing Yards / Game
17
13
Rushing Yards / Game
11
24

EPA

EPA / Play
10
20
EPA / Pass
13
22
EPA / Rush
17
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
32
Interceptions / Game
4
3
Fumbles / Game
12
12
Turnover EPA / Game
27
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
30
4th Down Efficiency
26
17
RZ Efficiency
6
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/07
14
W
W
O
10/14
23
W
W
U
10/21
4
W
L
U
10/28
5
W
W
O
11/04
-4
L
L
U
11/11
-18
L
L
U
11/25
28
W
W
U
12/03
-1
L
L
U
12/09
25
W
W
O
12/16
-34
L
L
U
BAL logo

Ravens

6-4
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/07
3
W
L
U
10/14
2
W
L
O
10/21
-30
L
L
O
11/04
10
W
W
U
11/11
35
W
W
O
11/18
3
W
P
U
11/25
3
W
W
U
12/02
-3
L
L
O
12/09
-3
L
L
O
12/16
-17
L
L
O