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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ saints week 15, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Win total projections and results

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NYG logo
NYGGiants
5-8
6
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
24
NOSaints
6-7
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
3
3
0
0
6
Saints
7
0
10
7
24

Spread

NO logo
-6

Total

UNDER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
193
296
Total Plays
61
58
Yards / Play
3.2
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.25
+0.09
Passing Yards
133
209
Comp/Att
22/38(58%)
23/29(79%)
Yards / Pass
3.5
7.2
EPA / Pass
-0.37
+0.32
Rushing Yards
60
87
Rush Attempts
16
28
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
12
20
Passing 1st downs
7
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
13%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
NaN%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
--
2
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
7
1
Sack Yards
-57
-9
Sack EPA
-11.52
-2.44
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
32
58
Penalty EPA
-6.56
-10.15

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+137
Home nfelo
1,474
Away nfelo
1,420
Home Field
+37.1
Base HFA
+45.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-8.1
Net QB Adjustment
+45.3
Home QB Adjustment
-6.4
Away QB Adjustment
-51.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

T. DeVito headshot

T. DeVito

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-51.7
Value
Ptile
11/12
-6.0
14
11/19
-4.0
24
11/26
-4.7
21
12/11
6.7
89
D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
-6.4
Value
Ptile
10/01
-5.1
19
10/08
1.8
61
10/15
1.5
59
10/19
0.4
52
10/29
4.7
79
11/05
3.0
70
11/12
-4.4
22
11/26
-1.4
40
12/03
-2.7
31
12/10
-1.8
37

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Saints Defense
Giants logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
30
6
Yards / Game
29
13
Passing Yards / Game
29
16
Rushing Yards / Game
16
22

EPA

EPA / Play
30
3
EPA / Pass
29
5
EPA / Rush
29
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
24
Interceptions / Game
15
3
Fumbles / Game
6
8
Turnover EPA / Game
21
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
4
4th Down Efficiency
20
3
RZ Efficiency
31
9
Saints Offense vs Giants Defense
Saints logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
10
26
Yards / Game
13
27
Passing Yards / Game
4
5
Rushing Yards / Game
21
29

EPA

EPA / Play
19
17
EPA / Pass
14
12
EPA / Rush
24
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
1
Interceptions / Game
10
3
Fumbles / Game
10
1
Turnover EPA / Game
26
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
10
4th Down Efficiency
22
20
RZ Efficiency
18
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/02
-21
L
L
U
10/08
-15
L
L
U
10/15
-5
L
W
U
10/22
7
W
W
U
10/29
-3
L
P
U
11/05
-24
L
L
U
11/12
-32
L
L
O
11/19
12
W
W
O
11/26
3
W
W
U
12/11
2
W
W
O
NO logo

Saints

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/01
-17
L
L
U
10/08
34
W
W
U
10/15
-7
L
L
U
10/19
-7
L
L
O
10/29
11
W
W
O
11/05
7
W
L
U
11/12
-8
L
L
O
11/26
-9
L
L
U
12/03
-5
L
L
O
12/10
22
W
W
U