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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ steelers week 13, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYG logo
NYGGiants
8-3
14
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
43°F
71 mph
24
PITSteelers
6-5
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
43°F
71 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
0
7
7
14
Steelers
3
9
7
3
22

Spread

PIT logo
-6.5

Total

UNDER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
234
389
Total Plays
55
70
Yards / Play
4.3
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.23
-0.04
Passing Yards
178
272
Comp/Att
24/39(62%)
24/38(63%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
7.2
EPA / Pass
-0.44
+0.29
Rushing Yards
56
117
Rush Attempts
14
30
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
16
20
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
36%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-9.43
-7.49
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-17
-17
Sack EPA
-6.49
-3.06
Penalties
4
12
Penalty Yards
--
115
Penalty EPA
--
-10.02

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+154
Home nfelo
1,597
Away nfelo
1,534
Home Field
+78.2
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+12.6
Home QB Adjustment
+13.7
Away QB Adjustment
+1.1
Market Regression
+24.6
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.1
Value
Ptile
09/18
2.7
70
09/25
-0.8
42
10/03
-1.2
39
10/09
-4.0
19
10/16
6.5
88
10/23
-1.3
38
11/06
1.8
64
11/14
0.1
49
11/20
1.5
60
11/27
0.2
50
B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+13.7
Value
Ptile
09/12
5.0
82
09/18
0.4
53
09/25
-6.0
11
10/02
11.3
98
10/09
11.6
99
10/16
-6.9
8
11/06
-1.7
36
11/13
12.1
99
11/20
-2.4
31
11/24
4.4
81

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Steelers Defense
Giants logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
27
10
Yards / Game
23
10
Passing Yards / Game
24
10
Rushing Yards / Game
29
8

EPA

EPA / Play
28
18
EPA / Pass
24
15
EPA / Rush
29
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
32
Interceptions / Game
21
19
Fumbles / Game
23
15
Turnover EPA / Game
14
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
24
4th Down Efficiency
14
19
RZ Efficiency
19
5
Steelers Offense vs Giants Defense
Steelers logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
12
4
Yards / Game
6
13
Passing Yards / Game
25
15
Rushing Yards / Game
8
2

EPA

EPA / Play
6
7
EPA / Pass
7
6
EPA / Rush
3
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
30
Interceptions / Game
21
8
Fumbles / Game
4
19
Turnover EPA / Game
20
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
3
4th Down Efficiency
11
15
RZ Efficiency
16
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
3
W
L
U
09/25
-2
L
L
O
10/03
-14
L
L
U
10/09
-7
L
P
U
10/16
4
W
W
O
10/23
7
W
W
U
11/06
5
W
W
O
11/14
1
W
W
U
11/20
6
W
L
U
11/27
14
W
W
U
PIT logo

Steelers

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
8
W
W
U
09/25
-31
L
L
U
10/02
29
W
W
O
10/09
18
W
W
U
10/16
-15
L
L
U
10/23
-11
L
L
U
11/06
-7
L
L
U
11/13
-5
L
L
O
11/20
15
W
W
U
11/24
21
W
W
U