NYGGiants
8-3
14
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
43°F
71 mph
24
PITSteelers
6-5
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
43°F
71 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
0
7
7
14
Steelers
3
9
7
3
22
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
234
389
Total Plays
55
70
Yards / Play
4.3
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.23
-0.04
Passing Yards
178
272
Comp/Att
24/39(62%)
24/38(63%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
7.2
EPA / Pass
-0.44
+0.29
Rushing Yards
56
117
Rush Attempts
14
30
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
20
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
36%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-9.43
-7.49
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-17
-17
Sack EPA
-6.49
-3.06
Penalties
4
12
Penalty Yards
--
115
Penalty EPA
--
-10.02
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+153
Home nfelo
1,597
Away nfelo
1,533
Home Field
+77.1
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+12.6
Home QB Adjustment
+13.7
Away QB Adjustment
+1.1
Market Regression
+24.6
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.1
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+13.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
10
Yards / Game
23
10
Passing Yards / Game
24
10
Rushing Yards / Game
29
8
EPA
EPA / Play
28
18
EPA / Pass
24
15
EPA / Rush
29
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
32
Interceptions / Game
21
19
Fumbles / Game
23
15
Turnover EPA / Game
14
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
24
4th Down Efficiency
14
19
RZ Efficiency
19
5
Steelers Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
4
Yards / Game
6
13
Passing Yards / Game
25
15
Rushing Yards / Game
8
2
EPA
EPA / Play
6
7
EPA / Pass
7
6
EPA / Rush
3
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
30
Interceptions / Game
21
8
Fumbles / Game
4
19
Turnover EPA / Game
20
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
3
4th Down Efficiency
11
15
RZ Efficiency
16
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Steelers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U