NYGGiants
0-2
27
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
022
HOUTexans
0-2
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
7
13
0
7
27
Texans
3
3
3
13
22
Spread
+6
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
379
427
Total Plays
60
63
Yards / Play
6.3
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.03
Passing Yards
265
368
Comp/Att
25/29(86%)
24/41(59%)
Yards / Pass
9.1
9.0
EPA / Pass
+0.54
+0.21
Rushing Yards
114
59
Rush Attempts
27
19
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
21
Passing 1st downs
16
18
Rushing 1st downs
4
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
54%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
75%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-8.70
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-32
-17
Sack EPA
-6.74
-2.38
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
20
50
Penalty EPA
-2.38
-6.31
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+112
Home nfelo
1,445
Away nfelo
1,406
Home Field
+46.5
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.1
Net QB Adjustment
+27.0
Home QB Adjustment
+20.2
Away QB Adjustment
-6.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-6.9
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+20.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
5
Yards / Game
16
14
Passing Yards / Game
8
22
Rushing Yards / Game
24
4
EPA
EPA / Play
13
5
EPA / Pass
15
13
EPA / Rush
11
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
1
Interceptions / Game
14
10
Fumbles / Game
3
4
Turnover EPA / Game
22
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
25
4th Down Efficiency
10
21
RZ Efficiency
29
31
Texans Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
23
Yards / Game
15
24
Passing Yards / Game
10
18
Rushing Yards / Game
7
21
EPA
EPA / Play
15
28
EPA / Pass
13
26
EPA / Rush
21
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
10
Interceptions / Game
6
7
Fumbles / Game
17
19
Turnover EPA / Game
32
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
27
4th Down Efficiency
14
32
RZ Efficiency
28
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U
Texans
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
2-8
O/U