nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ vikings week 4, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

NYG logo
NYGGiants
2-1
10
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0
24
MINVikings
3-0
MIN logo
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
3
0
7
10
Vikings
7
7
3
7
24

Spread

MIN logo
-4

Total

UNDER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
339
366
Total Plays
63
69
Yards / Play
5.4
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.22
+0.03
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
25/45(56%)
26/36(72%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
-0.28
+0.21
Rushing Yards
78
104
Rush Attempts
18
33
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
18
22
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
17%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.92
+5.71
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
69
37
Penalty EPA
-9.02
-7.56

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model69.7%
Spread Pick
MIN logo
Vikings-4.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+4.0%
Cover Probability
52.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+181
Home nfelo
1,561
Away nfelo
1,481
Home Field
+68.4
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+33.1
Home QB Adjustment
+36.0
Away QB Adjustment
+2.9
Market Regression
+5.7
Final Difference
145.0
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.9
Value
Ptile
11/15
3.1
74
11/29
-6.8
8
12/06
-2.8
30
12/14
11.7
99
12/20
6.6
89
12/27
-10.1
1
01/03
0.8
55
09/11
0.7
55
09/18
2.7
70
09/25
-0.8
42
S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+36.0
Value
Ptile
10/25
-8.0
4
11/08
3.0
73
11/15
-1.3
41
12/06
-1.1
43
12/13
-1.1
44
12/20
2.7
70
12/26
1.1
57
01/03
3.7
78
09/18
1.9
64
09/25
-1.1
40

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Vikings Defense
Giants logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
27
5
Yards / Game
23
3
Passing Yards / Game
24
4
Rushing Yards / Game
29
19

EPA

EPA / Play
28
4
EPA / Pass
24
2
EPA / Rush
29
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
10
Interceptions / Game
21
14
Fumbles / Game
23
2
Turnover EPA / Game
14
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
15
4th Down Efficiency
14
2
RZ Efficiency
19
13
Vikings Offense vs Giants Defense
Vikings logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
23
4
Yards / Game
28
13
Passing Yards / Game
30
15
Rushing Yards / Game
32
2

EPA

EPA / Play
23
7
EPA / Pass
14
6
EPA / Rush
32
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
30
Interceptions / Game
2
8
Fumbles / Game
22
19
Turnover EPA / Game
29
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
3
4th Down Efficiency
22
15
RZ Efficiency
29
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/15
-1
L
W
O
11/29
-6
L
L
U
12/06
-3
L
L
U
12/14
7
W
W
O
12/20
-3
L
W
O
12/27
-32
L
L
O
01/03
-5
L
L
O
09/11
1
W
W
U
09/18
3
W
L
U
09/25
-2
L
L
O
MIN logo

Vikings

7-3
SU
9-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/29
10
W
W
U
12/06
-31
L
L
O
12/10
-3
L
W
U
12/20
21
W
W
O
12/27
32
W
W
O
01/03
7
W
W
U
01/10
-1
L
W
U
09/11
9
W
W
O
09/18
3
W
W
U
09/25
12
W
W
U