JAXJaguars
1-3
17
TBD
Soldier Field
69°F
7 mph
16
CHIBears
1-4
TBD
Soldier Field
69°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
0
0
17
17
Bears
0
10
3
3
16
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
317
389
Total Plays
55
77
Yards / Play
5.8
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.01
Passing Yards
263
297
Comp/Att
20/33(61%)
30/49(61%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.05
Rushing Yards
54
92
Rush Attempts
20
27
Yards / Rush
2.7
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
22
Passing 1st downs
12
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
5
1
3rd Down %
20%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
17
Red Zone %
33%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.57
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-8
-5
Sack EPA
-5.24
-1.28
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
50
87
Penalty EPA
-4.43
-11.23
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.5
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model50.3%
Spread Pick
Jaguars+2.5
Expected Value
+2.7%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-31
Home nfelo
1,438
Away nfelo
1,432
Home Field
+2.5
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-44.5
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-39.5
Home QB Adjustment
-35.1
Away QB Adjustment
+4.4
Market Regression
+5.5
Final Difference
1.8
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.4
B. Hoyer
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-35.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
23
Yards / Game
22
14
Passing Yards / Game
11
2
Rushing Yards / Game
23
26
EPA
EPA / Play
24
26
EPA / Pass
28
24
EPA / Rush
25
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
25
Interceptions / Game
21
29
Fumbles / Game
27
30
Turnover EPA / Game
10
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
22
4th Down Efficiency
25
28
RZ Efficiency
11
10
Bears Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
24
Yards / Game
14
6
Passing Yards / Game
17
1
Rushing Yards / Game
16
18
EPA
EPA / Play
26
21
EPA / Pass
22
9
EPA / Rush
22
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
18
Interceptions / Game
28
32
Fumbles / Game
25
24
Turnover EPA / Game
4
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
9
4th Down Efficiency
31
12
RZ Efficiency
22
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Bears
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
7-3
O/U