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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ bengals week 7, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
2-4
27
TBD
Paycor Stadium
70°F
2 mph
17
CINBengals
0-6
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
70°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
6
3
12
21
Bengals
0
7
3
7
17

Spread

JAX logo
-4.5

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
462
291
Total Plays
79
65
Yards / Play
5.8
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.21
Passing Yards
246
258
Comp/Att
15/33(45%)
22/43(51%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.13
-0.36
Rushing Yards
216
33
Rush Attempts
44
20
Yards / Rush
4.9
1.6
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
22
21
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
11
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
6
3rd Down %
25%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
17%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-23.54
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-11
-18
Sack EPA
-3.27
-3.99
Penalties
11
6
Penalty Yards
130
50
Penalty EPA
-9.52
-4.43

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
JAX logo
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market66.6%
Model57.6%
Spread Pick
CIN logo
Bengals+4.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+17.9%
Cover Probability
61.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+0
Home nfelo
1,383
Away nfelo
1,505
Home Field
+53.5
Base HFA
+53.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+69.2
Home QB Adjustment
-3.4
Away QB Adjustment
-72.6
Market Regression
-17.5
Final Difference
-53.0
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

G. Minshew headshot

G. Minshew

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-72.6
Value
Ptile
09/15
0.8
58
09/19
4.2
80
09/29
-3.5
28
10/06
6.8
89
10/13
-9.0
6
A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-3.4
Value
Ptile
10/28
0.6
50
11/11
-9.6
4
11/18
2.4
66
11/25
-3.5
25
09/08
5.1
84
09/15
-1.3
44
09/22
-1.8
40
09/30
-13.2
1
10/06
3.6
76
10/13
-3.2
30

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Bengals Defense
Jaguars logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
26
25
Yards / Game
19
29
Passing Yards / Game
9
9
Rushing Yards / Game
17
32

EPA

EPA / Play
23
30
EPA / Pass
22
29
EPA / Rush
17
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
9
Interceptions / Game
7
21
Fumbles / Game
30
25
Turnover EPA / Game
17
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
25
4th Down Efficiency
15
20
RZ Efficiency
31
4
Bengals Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Bengals logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
30
21
Yards / Game
26
25
Passing Yards / Game
11
12
Rushing Yards / Game
25
28

EPA

EPA / Play
25
27
EPA / Pass
29
23
EPA / Rush
22
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
15
Interceptions / Game
23
25
Fumbles / Game
27
25
Turnover EPA / Game
6
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
23
4th Down Efficiency
12
12
RZ Efficiency
30
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/06
-21
L
L
O
12/16
-3
L
L
U
12/23
10
W
W
U
12/30
-17
L
L
U
09/08
-14
L
L
O
09/15
-1
L
W
U
09/19
13
W
W
U
09/29
2
W
W
O
10/06
-7
L
L
O
10/13
-7
L
L
U
CIN logo

Bengals

1-9
SU
7-3
ATS
2-6-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/09
-5
L
W
U
12/16
14
W
W
P
12/23
-8
L
W
P
12/30
-3
L
W
U
09/08
-1
L
W
U
09/15
-24
L
L
O
09/22
-4
L
W
U
09/30
-24
L
L
U
10/06
-3
L
L
O
10/13
-6
L
W
U