JAXJaguars
2-4
27
TBD
Paycor Stadium
70°F
2 mph
17
CINBengals
0-6
TBD
Paycor Stadium
70°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
6
3
12
21
Bengals
0
7
3
7
17
Spread
-4.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
462
291
Total Plays
79
65
Yards / Play
5.8
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.21
Passing Yards
246
258
Comp/Att
15/33(45%)
22/43(51%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.13
-0.36
Rushing Yards
216
33
Rush Attempts
44
20
Yards / Rush
4.9
1.6
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
21
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
11
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
6
3rd Down %
25%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
17%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-23.54
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-11
-18
Sack EPA
-3.27
-3.99
Penalties
11
6
Penalty Yards
130
50
Penalty EPA
-9.52
-4.43
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model57.5%
Spread Pick
Bengals+4.5
Expected Value
+17.9%
Cover Probability
61.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+1
Home nfelo
1,381
Away nfelo
1,502
Home Field
+52.9
Base HFA
+52.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+69.2
Home QB Adjustment
-3.4
Away QB Adjustment
-72.6
Market Regression
-17.4
Final Difference
-52.7
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
G. Minshew
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-72.6
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-3.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
25
Yards / Game
20
29
Passing Yards / Game
9
9
Rushing Yards / Game
17
32
EPA
EPA / Play
23
30
EPA / Pass
22
29
EPA / Rush
16
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
9
Interceptions / Game
7
21
Fumbles / Game
30
25
Turnover EPA / Game
17
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
25
4th Down Efficiency
15
20
RZ Efficiency
31
4
Bengals Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
21
Yards / Game
26
25
Passing Yards / Game
11
12
Rushing Yards / Game
25
28
EPA
EPA / Play
25
27
EPA / Pass
29
23
EPA / Rush
22
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
15
Interceptions / Game
23
25
Fumbles / Game
27
25
Turnover EPA / Game
6
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
23
4th Down Efficiency
12
12
RZ Efficiency
29
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bengals
1-9
SU
7-3
ATS
2-6-2
O/U