JAXJaguars
0-2
10
TBD
New Era Field
68°F
5 mph
47
BUFBills
2-0
TBD
New Era Field
68°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
3
7
0
10
Bills
13
21
3
10
47
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
239
388
Total Plays
68
60
Yards / Play
3.5
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.21
+0.44
Passing Yards
147
--
Comp/Att
26/46(57%)
24/31(77%)
Yards / Pass
3.2
--
EPA / Pass
-0.57
+0.69
Rushing Yards
92
122
Rush Attempts
17
29
Yards / Rush
5.4
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.56
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
25
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
15%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
25%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.71
--
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-53
--
Sack EPA
-13.79
--
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
45
47
Penalty EPA
-4.53
-6.55
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model69.0%
Spread Pick
Bills-4.0
Expected Value
+4.0%
Cover Probability
52.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+176
Home nfelo
1,610
Away nfelo
1,510
Home Field
+63.2
Base HFA
+46.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+12.6
Home QB Adjustment
+6.3
Away QB Adjustment
-6.3
Market Regression
+8.0
Final Difference
138.9
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
W. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.3
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+6.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
12
Yards / Game
25
16
Passing Yards / Game
26
24
Rushing Yards / Game
25
13
EPA
EPA / Play
18
14
EPA / Pass
20
23
EPA / Rush
16
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
32
Interceptions / Game
22
10
Fumbles / Game
17
2
Turnover EPA / Game
23
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
30
4th Down Efficiency
20
14
RZ Efficiency
13
17
Bills Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
27
Yards / Game
10
31
Passing Yards / Game
32
26
Rushing Yards / Game
9
24
EPA
EPA / Play
2
31
EPA / Pass
3
32
EPA / Rush
3
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
25
Interceptions / Game
2
30
Fumbles / Game
1
31
Turnover EPA / Game
32
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
26
4th Down Efficiency
2
17
RZ Efficiency
2
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bills
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U