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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ bills week 3, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
0-2
10
TBD
New Era Field
68°F
5 mph
47
BUFBills
2-0
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
68°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
3
7
0
10
Bills
13
21
3
10
47

Spread

BUF logo
-4

Total

OVER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
239
388
Total Plays
68
60
Yards / Play
3.5
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.21
+0.44
Passing Yards
147
--
Comp/Att
26/46(57%)
24/31(77%)
Yards / Pass
3.2
--
EPA / Pass
-0.57
+0.69
Rushing Yards
92
122
Rush Attempts
17
29
Yards / Rush
5.4
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.56
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
19
25
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
15%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
25%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.71
--
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-53
--
Sack EPA
-13.79
--
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
45
47
Penalty EPA
-4.53
-6.55

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model68.8%
Spread Pick
BUF logo
Bills-4.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+4.0%
Cover Probability
52.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+172
Home nfelo
1,606
Away nfelo
1,510
Home Field
+63.1
Base HFA
+46.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+12.6
Home QB Adjustment
+6.4
Away QB Adjustment
-6.2
Market Regression
+6.0
Final Difference
136.9
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-6.2
Value
Ptile
11/12
-9.8
3
11/19
9.7
97
11/26
4.6
79
12/04
5.8
85
12/10
-3.4
27
12/17
5.4
84
12/24
-5.3
17
01/07
2.4
66
09/08
-3.8
23
09/15
-2.0
34
J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.8
Team Elo Adj
+6.4
Value
Ptile
11/26
11.3
98
12/10
-1.1
42
12/17
-0.3
47
12/23
4.1
76
12/31
0.7
54
01/07
5.9
86
01/15
12.0
99
01/21
11.2
98
09/08
8.8
95
09/12
-0.8
43

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Bills Defense
Jaguars logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
26
12
Yards / Game
25
16
Passing Yards / Game
26
24
Rushing Yards / Game
25
13

EPA

EPA / Play
18
14
EPA / Pass
20
23
EPA / Rush
16
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
32
Interceptions / Game
22
10
Fumbles / Game
17
2
Turnover EPA / Game
23
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
30
4th Down Efficiency
20
14
RZ Efficiency
13
17
Bills Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Bills logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
2
27
Yards / Game
10
31
Passing Yards / Game
32
26
Rushing Yards / Game
9
24

EPA

EPA / Play
2
31
EPA / Pass
3
32
EPA / Rush
3
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
25
Interceptions / Game
2
30
Fumbles / Game
1
31
Turnover EPA / Game
32
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
26
4th Down Efficiency
2
17
RZ Efficiency
2
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/19
20
W
W
O
11/26
3
W
W
U
12/04
-3
L
L
O
12/10
-4
L
L
O
12/17
-16
L
L
U
12/24
-18
L
L
U
12/31
26
W
W
U
01/07
-8
L
L
O
09/08
-3
L
W
U
09/15
-5
L
L
U
BUF logo

Bills

8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/26
-3
L
L
O
12/10
3
W
W
U
12/17
21
W
W
U
12/23
2
W
L
O
12/31
6
W
L
O
01/07
7
W
W
U
01/15
14
W
W
O
01/21
-3
L
L
O
09/08
6
W
L
O
09/12
21
W
W
U