JAXJaguars
0-5
19
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
59°F
7 mph
35
DENBroncos
5-0
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
59°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
6
7
0
13
Broncos
14
0
14
7
35
Spread
+27
Total
OVER
53
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
362
407
Total Plays
72
71
Yards / Play
5.0
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.07
+0.12
Passing Yards
291
--
Comp/Att
27/43(63%)
28/42(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
--
EPA / Pass
+0.03
+0.26
Rushing Yards
71
112
Rush Attempts
27
29
Yards / Rush
2.6
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.38
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
26
Passing 1st downs
15
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
36%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
33%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-5.66
-17.40
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-12
--
Sack EPA
-2.65
--
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
62
31
Penalty EPA
-8.08
-4.98
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-27.5
Current
-27.0
Model
-26.0
Win Probability
Market97.5%
Model97.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+556
Home nfelo
1,678
Away nfelo
1,237
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+30.4
Home QB Adjustment
+47.5
Away QB Adjustment
+17.2
Market Regression
-7.4
Final Difference
614.4
Model Spread
-26.0
Quarterbacks
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+17.2
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+47.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
22
Yards / Game
31
18
Passing Yards / Game
20
23
Rushing Yards / Game
31
5
EPA
EPA / Play
31
23
EPA / Pass
32
23
EPA / Rush
30
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
32
Interceptions / Game
27
18
Fumbles / Game
4
8
Turnover EPA / Game
10
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
19
4th Down Efficiency
20
4
RZ Efficiency
32
25
Broncos Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
28
Yards / Game
1
26
Passing Yards / Game
24
19
Rushing Yards / Game
16
29
EPA
EPA / Play
1
27
EPA / Pass
1
31
EPA / Rush
19
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
2
Interceptions / Game
7
27
Fumbles / Game
25
16
Turnover EPA / Game
15
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
26
4th Down Efficiency
4
30
RZ Efficiency
2
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
0-10
SU
1-9
ATS
4-6
O/U
Broncos
9-1
SU
7-2-1
ATS
8-1-1
O/U