JAXJaguars
6-3
19
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
38°F
16 mph
7
CLEBrowns
0-9
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
38°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
3
0
3
13
Browns
0
7
0
0
7
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
37
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
284
184
Total Plays
77
55
Yards / Play
3.7
3.3
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.57
Passing Yards
145
134
Comp/Att
17/30(57%)
16/32(50%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
4.2
EPA / Pass
-0.21
-0.98
Rushing Yards
139
50
Rush Attempts
45
18
Yards / Rush
3.1
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
11
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
30%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
20
13
Red Zone %
100%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
+0.80
-22.36
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-9
-45
Sack EPA
-7.11
-18.10
Penalties
6
--
Penalty Yards
40
--
Penalty EPA
-2.93
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-159
Home nfelo
1,298
Away nfelo
1,510
Home Field
+56.0
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.1
Home QB Adjustment
-2.0
Away QB Adjustment
+1.2
Market Regression
+15.4
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.2
D. Kizer
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-2.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
31
Yards / Game
9
13
Passing Yards / Game
28
31
Rushing Yards / Game
1
7
EPA
EPA / Play
9
27
EPA / Pass
10
27
EPA / Rush
6
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
6
Interceptions / Game
9
31
Fumbles / Game
20
18
Turnover EPA / Game
24
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
23
4th Down Efficiency
2
18
RZ Efficiency
1
32
Browns Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
3
Yards / Game
24
3
Passing Yards / Game
15
6
Rushing Yards / Game
18
17
EPA
EPA / Play
31
1
EPA / Pass
32
1
EPA / Rush
4
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
29
Interceptions / Game
32
2
Fumbles / Game
25
6
Turnover EPA / Game
1
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
4
4th Down Efficiency
12
24
RZ Efficiency
24
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Browns
0-10
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U