JAXJaguars
1-3
31
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
84°F
9 mph
38
TBBuccaneers
1-3
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
84°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
14
10
7
31
Buccaneers
3
17
5
7
32
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
325
371
Total Plays
56
62
Yards / Play
5.8
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.17
Passing Yards
270
188
Comp/Att
23/33(70%)
13/20(65%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
9.4
EPA / Pass
+0.27
+0.70
Rushing Yards
55
183
Rush Attempts
17
40
Yards / Rush
3.2
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.46
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
20
Passing 1st downs
15
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
25%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
8
11
Red Zone %
80%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-12.12
--
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-33
-23
Sack EPA
-7.86
-4.19
Penalties
3
10
Penalty Yards
12
72
Penalty EPA
-1.71
-8.41
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
+3.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model53.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+57
Home nfelo
1,365
Away nfelo
1,360
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-10.2
Home QB Adjustment
-0.9
Away QB Adjustment
+9.3
Market Regression
+26.1
Final Difference
23.9
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.3
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-0.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
26
Yards / Game
17
11
Passing Yards / Game
6
25
Rushing Yards / Game
27
9
EPA
EPA / Play
24
25
EPA / Pass
19
27
EPA / Rush
30
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
28
Interceptions / Game
26
20
Fumbles / Game
15
5
Turnover EPA / Game
4
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
30
4th Down Efficiency
13
27
RZ Efficiency
18
30
Buccaneers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
31
Yards / Game
4
24
Passing Yards / Game
24
32
Rushing Yards / Game
4
15
EPA
EPA / Play
20
18
EPA / Pass
13
26
EPA / Rush
13
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
4
Interceptions / Game
20
26
Fumbles / Game
21
15
Turnover EPA / Game
9
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
31
4th Down Efficiency
11
17
RZ Efficiency
23
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Buccaneers
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U