JAXJaguars
7-3
24
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
027
ARICardinals
4-6
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
3
7
8
18
Cardinals
3
10
3
11
27
Spread
+6
Total
OVER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
219
346
Total Plays
58
71
Yards / Play
3.8
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.09
Passing Yards
128
238
Comp/Att
19/33(58%)
22/39(56%)
Yards / Pass
3.9
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.29
-0.14
Rushing Yards
91
108
Rush Attempts
22
31
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.21
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
20
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
8%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
1
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
17
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-9.82
-9.39
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-32
-5
Sack EPA
-5.27
-6.54
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
45
98
Penalty EPA
-5.51
-6.81
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model63.0%
Spread Pick
Cardinals+6.0
Expected Value
+7.6%
Cover Probability
55.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-45
Home nfelo
1,435
Away nfelo
1,516
Home Field
+75.8
Base HFA
+55.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.0
Net QB Adjustment
-39.4
Home QB Adjustment
-43.0
Away QB Adjustment
-3.6
Market Regression
+16.7
Final Difference
-92.4
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-3.6
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-43.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
18
Yards / Game
9
4
Passing Yards / Game
28
24
Rushing Yards / Game
1
6
EPA
EPA / Play
9
6
EPA / Pass
10
9
EPA / Rush
6
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
3
Interceptions / Game
9
12
Fumbles / Game
20
23
Turnover EPA / Game
24
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
6
4th Down Efficiency
2
13
RZ Efficiency
1
23
Cardinals Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
3
Yards / Game
23
3
Passing Yards / Game
8
6
Rushing Yards / Game
30
17
EPA
EPA / Play
30
1
EPA / Pass
29
1
EPA / Rush
31
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
29
Interceptions / Game
28
2
Fumbles / Game
10
6
Turnover EPA / Game
5
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
4
4th Down Efficiency
20
24
RZ Efficiency
30
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Cardinals
4-6
SU
2-7-1
ATS
3-7
O/U