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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ chargers week 4, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
0-3
14
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
73°F
8 mph
33
LACChargers
2-1
LAC logo
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
73°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
14
0
0
14
Chargers
3
14
10
6
33

Spread

LAC logo
-12.5

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
320
407
Total Plays
65
61
Yards / Play
4.9
6.7
EPA / Play
-0.11
+0.20
Passing Yards
235
365
Comp/Att
29/37(78%)
29/39(74%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
9.4
EPA / Pass
-0.08
+0.54
Rushing Yards
85
42
Rush Attempts
25
20
Yards / Rush
3.4
2.1
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
12
16
Rushing 1st downs
7
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
64%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
9
9
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-14.42
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-19
-12
Sack EPA
-3.96
-2.83
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
32
57
Penalty EPA
-6.08
-7.11

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-12.5
Model
-12.5

Win Probability

Market84.1%
Model84.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+305
Home nfelo
1,579
Away nfelo
1,317
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-30.5
Home QB Adjustment
+18.1
Away QB Adjustment
+48.6
Market Regression
-28.9
Final Difference
289.4
Model Spread
-12.5

Quarterbacks

R. Bortles headshot

R. Bortles

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+48.6
No recent game data available
P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+18.1
Value
Ptile
12/01
0.5
53
12/08
5.3
84
12/12
-0.4
48
12/22
-3.2
30
12/29
0.6
54
01/05
0.5
53
01/12
0.1
51
09/08
0.8
55
09/14
8.7
93
09/21
5.0
82

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Chargers Defense
Jaguars logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
32
12
Yards / Game
31
10
Passing Yards / Game
21
1
Rushing Yards / Game
21
25

EPA

EPA / Play
31
23
EPA / Pass
32
21
EPA / Rush
16
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
16
Interceptions / Game
26
28
Fumbles / Game
10
6
Turnover EPA / Game
11
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
24
4th Down Efficiency
25
3
RZ Efficiency
31
14
Chargers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Chargers logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
17
26
Yards / Game
19
26
Passing Yards / Game
8
29
Rushing Yards / Game
30
27

EPA

EPA / Play
12
22
EPA / Pass
7
22
EPA / Rush
27
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
1
Interceptions / Game
26
30
Fumbles / Game
2
5
Turnover EPA / Game
23
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
23
4th Down Efficiency
19
9
RZ Efficiency
15
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/17
-13
L
L
O
11/24
7
W
W
U
12/01
4
W
W
O
12/05
7
W
W
O
12/15
-7
L
L
O
12/22
-4
L
P
U
12/29
-20
L
L
U
09/07
-17
L
L
O
09/14
-31
L
L
O
09/21
-27
L
L
O
LAC logo

Chargers

7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/01
-7
L
L
U
12/08
23
W
W
O
12/12
7
W
W
U
12/22
13
W
W
U
12/29
3
W
L
O
01/05
17
W
W
U
01/12
-7
L
W
U
09/08
-1
L
W
U
09/14
9
W
W
O
09/21
12
W
W
U