JAXJaguars
0-3
14
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
73°F
8 mph
33
LACChargers
2-1
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
73°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
14
0
0
14
Chargers
3
14
10
6
33
Spread
-12.5
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
320
407
Total Plays
65
61
Yards / Play
4.9
6.7
EPA / Play
-0.11
+0.20
Passing Yards
235
365
Comp/Att
29/37(78%)
29/39(74%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
9.4
EPA / Pass
-0.08
+0.54
Rushing Yards
85
42
Rush Attempts
25
20
Yards / Rush
3.4
2.1
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
12
16
Rushing 1st downs
7
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
64%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
9
9
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-14.42
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-19
-12
Sack EPA
-3.96
-2.83
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
32
57
Penalty EPA
-6.08
-7.11
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-12.5
Model
-12.5
Win Probability
Market84.1%
Model84.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+309
Home nfelo
1,579
Away nfelo
1,312
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-30.5
Home QB Adjustment
+18.1
Away QB Adjustment
+48.6
Market Regression
-28.9
Final Difference
289.4
Model Spread
-12.5
Quarterbacks
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+48.6
No recent game data available
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+18.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
12
Yards / Game
31
10
Passing Yards / Game
21
1
Rushing Yards / Game
21
25
EPA
EPA / Play
31
23
EPA / Pass
32
21
EPA / Rush
16
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
16
Interceptions / Game
26
28
Fumbles / Game
10
6
Turnover EPA / Game
11
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
24
4th Down Efficiency
25
3
RZ Efficiency
31
14
Chargers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
26
Yards / Game
19
26
Passing Yards / Game
8
29
Rushing Yards / Game
30
27
EPA
EPA / Play
12
22
EPA / Pass
7
22
EPA / Rush
27
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
1
Interceptions / Game
26
30
Fumbles / Game
2
5
Turnover EPA / Game
23
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
23
4th Down Efficiency
19
9
RZ Efficiency
15
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Chargers
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U