JAXJaguars
3-6
17
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
33°F
7 mph
27
KCChiefs
6-2
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
33°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
7
3
7
17
Chiefs
7
13
7
0
27
Spread
-9.5
Total
UNDER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
315
486
Total Plays
61
62
Yards / Play
5.2
7.8
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.11
Passing Yards
240
--
Comp/Att
29/40(73%)
26/35(74%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
--
EPA / Pass
+0.18
+0.57
Rushing Yards
75
155
Rush Attempts
16
27
Yards / Rush
4.7
5.7
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
26
Passing 1st downs
14
17
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
29%
70%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
67%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-12.02
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-19
--
Sack EPA
-6.93
--
Penalties
5
--
Penalty Yards
30
--
Penalty EPA
-4.47
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+261
Home nfelo
1,640
Away nfelo
1,412
Home Field
+32.4
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.0
Net QB Adjustment
+0.8
Home QB Adjustment
+15.4
Away QB Adjustment
+14.7
Market Regression
-10.5
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
T. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+14.7
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+15.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
18
Yards / Game
7
14
Passing Yards / Game
29
28
Rushing Yards / Game
14
8
EPA
EPA / Play
7
27
EPA / Pass
7
15
EPA / Rush
14
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
30
Interceptions / Game
13
21
Fumbles / Game
30
2
Turnover EPA / Game
7
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
22
4th Down Efficiency
12
24
RZ Efficiency
17
28
Chiefs Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
14
Yards / Game
1
24
Passing Yards / Game
12
20
Rushing Yards / Game
20
12
EPA
EPA / Play
1
17
EPA / Pass
1
20
EPA / Rush
6
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
28
Interceptions / Game
7
18
Fumbles / Game
6
3
Turnover EPA / Game
27
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
29
4th Down Efficiency
2
1
RZ Efficiency
2
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chiefs
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U