JAXJaguars
10-8
20
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
36°F
6 mph
27
KCChiefs
14-3
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
36°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
3
0
10
20
Chiefs
7
10
3
7
27
Spread
+10
Total
UNDER
52.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
349
362
Total Plays
60
67
Yards / Play
5.8
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.24
Passing Yards
205
--
Comp/Att
24/39(62%)
27/37(73%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.12
+0.34
Rushing Yards
144
144
Rush Attempts
19
30
Yards / Rush
7.6
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.45
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
23
Passing 1st downs
11
14
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
54%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.07
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-12
--
Sack EPA
-2.89
--
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
40
30
Penalty EPA
-5.37
+0.83
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+266
Home nfelo
1,650
Away nfelo
1,459
Home Field
+61.6
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+12.1
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.5
Net QB Adjustment
-10.5
Home QB Adjustment
+10.3
Away QB Adjustment
+20.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
W. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+20.9
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+10.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
18
Yards / Game
7
14
Passing Yards / Game
29
28
Rushing Yards / Game
14
8
EPA
EPA / Play
7
27
EPA / Pass
7
15
EPA / Rush
14
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
30
Interceptions / Game
13
21
Fumbles / Game
30
2
Turnover EPA / Game
7
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
22
4th Down Efficiency
12
24
RZ Efficiency
17
28
Chiefs Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
14
Yards / Game
1
24
Passing Yards / Game
12
20
Rushing Yards / Game
20
12
EPA
EPA / Play
1
17
EPA / Pass
1
20
EPA / Rush
6
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
28
Interceptions / Game
7
18
Fumbles / Game
6
3
Turnover EPA / Game
27
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
29
4th Down Efficiency
2
1
RZ Efficiency
2
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
8-2
SU
7-2-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chiefs
9-1
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U