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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ chiefs week 20, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
10-8
20
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
36°F
6 mph
27
KCChiefs
14-3
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
36°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
3
0
10
20
Chiefs
7
10
3
7
27

Spread

JAX logo
+10

Total

UNDER
52.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
349
362
Total Plays
60
67
Yards / Play
5.8
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.24
Passing Yards
205
--
Comp/Att
24/39(62%)
27/37(73%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.12
+0.34
Rushing Yards
144
144
Rush Attempts
19
30
Yards / Rush
7.6
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.45
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
20
23
Passing 1st downs
11
14
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
54%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.07
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-12
--
Sack EPA
-2.89
--
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
40
30
Penalty EPA
-5.37
+0.83

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+265
Home nfelo
1,645
Away nfelo
1,456
Home Field
+62.2
Base HFA
+42.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+12.2
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.6
Net QB Adjustment
-10.5
Home QB Adjustment
+10.3
Away QB Adjustment
+20.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0

Quarterbacks

W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+20.9
Value
Ptile
11/06
5.9
89
11/13
0.8
57
11/27
5.5
87
12/04
-3.5
25
12/11
11.5
98
12/18
9.5
95
12/22
4.9
85
01/01
-2.7
30
01/07
-1.8
40
01/14
-0.8
47
P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.3
Value
Ptile
11/06
8.0
93
11/13
10.2
97
11/20
6.8
91
11/27
5.5
86
12/04
2.2
70
12/11
1.8
66
12/18
13.7
100
12/24
3.8
80
01/01
8.1
93
01/07
-0.2
51

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Jaguars logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
9
18
Yards / Game
7
14
Passing Yards / Game
29
28
Rushing Yards / Game
14
8

EPA

EPA / Play
7
27
EPA / Pass
7
15
EPA / Rush
14
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
30
Interceptions / Game
13
21
Fumbles / Game
30
2
Turnover EPA / Game
7
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
22
4th Down Efficiency
12
24
RZ Efficiency
17
28
Chiefs Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Chiefs logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
1
14
Yards / Game
1
24
Passing Yards / Game
12
20
Rushing Yards / Game
20
12

EPA

EPA / Play
1
17
EPA / Pass
1
20
EPA / Rush
6
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
28
Interceptions / Game
7
18
Fumbles / Game
6
3
Turnover EPA / Game
27
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
29
4th Down Efficiency
2
1
RZ Efficiency
2
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

8-2
SU
7-2-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/06
7
W
W
U
11/13
-10
L
P
U
11/27
1
W
W
O
12/04
-26
L
L
O
12/11
14
W
W
O
12/18
6
W
W
O
12/22
16
W
W
U
01/01
28
W
W
U
01/07
4
W
L
U
01/14
1
W
W
O
KC logo

Chiefs

9-1
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/06
3
W
L
U
11/13
10
W
P
U
11/20
3
W
L
O
11/27
16
W
L
U
12/04
-3
L
L
U
12/11
6
W
L
O
12/18
6
W
L
O
12/24
14
W
W
U
01/01
3
W
L
O
01/07
18
W
W
U