JAXJaguars
-
31
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
021
INDColts
-
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
7
3
14
31
Colts
0
7
8
0
15
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
342
280
Total Plays
69
69
Yards / Play
5.0
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.27
-0.46
Passing Yards
237
215
Comp/Att
24/32(75%)
24/39(62%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.28
-0.36
Rushing Yards
105
65
Rush Attempts
35
26
Yards / Rush
3.0
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.51
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
25%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
3
2
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-16.19
-12.39
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-4
-8
Sack EPA
-10.32
-4.04
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
45
35
Penalty EPA
-5.67
-4.00
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-93
Home nfelo
1,402
Away nfelo
1,510
Home Field
+23.3
Base HFA
+42.4
Divisional Adj
-19.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-8.7
Home QB Adjustment
-3.3
Away QB Adjustment
+5.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
T. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.4
A. Richardson
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-3.3
No recent game data available
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
28
Yards / Game
12
24
Passing Yards / Game
22
25
Rushing Yards / Game
23
24
EPA
EPA / Play
15
19
EPA / Pass
19
15
EPA / Rush
28
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
18
Interceptions / Game
19
14
Fumbles / Game
31
8
Turnover EPA / Game
7
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
11
4th Down Efficiency
27
30
RZ Efficiency
21
16
Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
16
Yards / Game
14
19
Passing Yards / Game
14
20
Rushing Yards / Game
10
9
EPA
EPA / Play
17
14
EPA / Pass
16
11
EPA / Rush
21
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
18
Interceptions / Game
6
12
Fumbles / Game
16
13
Turnover EPA / Game
19
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
8
4th Down Efficiency
16
17
RZ Efficiency
23
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
7-3
SU
7-2-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Colts
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U