JAXJaguars
0-2
22
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
017
INDColts
1-1
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
0
10
9
22
Colts
7
7
0
3
17
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
333
437
Total Plays
55
75
Yards / Play
6.1
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.12
-0.03
Passing Yards
148
--
Comp/Att
10/21(48%)
22/46(48%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.08
+0.03
Rushing Yards
185
124
Rush Attempts
33
29
Yards / Rush
5.6
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.18
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
23
Passing 1st downs
3
15
Rushing 1st downs
10
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
31%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
4
10
3rd Down Attempts
13
19
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.56
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-7
--
Sack EPA
-1.62
--
Penalties
6
11
Penalty Yards
67
106
Penalty EPA
-6.31
-7.51
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+57
Home nfelo
1,384
Away nfelo
1,395
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+12.3
Home QB Adjustment
+3.4
Away QB Adjustment
-8.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-8.9
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+3.4
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
21
Yards / Game
29
27
Passing Yards / Game
12
10
Rushing Yards / Game
30
29
EPA
EPA / Play
29
26
EPA / Pass
29
27
EPA / Rush
25
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
9
Interceptions / Game
22
22
Fumbles / Game
16
30
Turnover EPA / Game
10
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
15
4th Down Efficiency
30
9
RZ Efficiency
27
8
Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
29
Yards / Game
10
30
Passing Yards / Game
5
11
Rushing Yards / Game
18
30
EPA
EPA / Play
16
27
EPA / Pass
17
26
EPA / Rush
11
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
2
Interceptions / Game
26
20
Fumbles / Game
11
16
Turnover EPA / Game
7
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
28
4th Down Efficiency
2
13
RZ Efficiency
21
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Colts
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U