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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ colts week 4, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
1-2
13
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
16
INDColts
1-2
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Jaguars
3
10
0
0
0
13
Colts
3
7
0
3
3
16

Spread

JAX logo
+4

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
431
326
Total Plays
79
74
Yards / Play
5.5
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.10
Passing Yards
289
266
Comp/Att
28/50(56%)
30/47(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
5.7
EPA / Pass
+0.02
+0.07
Rushing Yards
142
60
Rush Attempts
28
24
Yards / Rush
5.1
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.67
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
21
22
Passing 1st downs
15
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
39%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
18
15
Red Zone %
33%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-11.89
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-9
-16
Sack EPA
-2.12
-4.59
Penalties
13
4
Penalty Yards
92
45
Penalty EPA
-13.62
-5.14

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
IND logo
Colts-4.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+0.7%
Cover Probability
51.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+167
Home nfelo
1,514
Away nfelo
1,346
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-56.3
Home QB Adjustment
-55.8
Away QB Adjustment
+0.5
Market Regression
-73.0
Final Difference
134.9
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

R. Bortles headshot

R. Bortles

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.5
Value
Ptile
11/09
-5.5
17
11/23
-8.0
8
11/30
-2.5
32
12/07
-6.4
13
12/14
-12.0
1
12/18
-3.9
27
12/28
-5.8
16
09/13
-7.8
5
09/20
5.1
82
09/27
-1.7
37
M. Hasselbeck headshot

M. Hasselbeck

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-55.8
Value
Ptile
12/04
-2.9
32
12/11
-4.5
21
12/18
-3.4
28
12/24
-0.1
52
01/01
4.0
77
10/07
-2.7
32
10/11
-1.6
38
10/21
-0.6
46
10/28
2.3
64
11/04
-0.6
46

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Jaguars logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
14
25
Yards / Game
17
27
Passing Yards / Game
6
23
Rushing Yards / Game
27
25

EPA

EPA / Play
24
14
EPA / Pass
19
18
EPA / Rush
30
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
15
Interceptions / Game
26
6
Fumbles / Game
15
15
Turnover EPA / Game
4
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
19
4th Down Efficiency
13
30
RZ Efficiency
18
26
Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Colts logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
23
31
Yards / Game
28
24
Passing Yards / Game
20
32
Rushing Yards / Game
29
15

EPA

EPA / Play
27
18
EPA / Pass
25
26
EPA / Rush
32
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
4
Interceptions / Game
28
26
Fumbles / Game
15
15
Turnover EPA / Game
3
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
31
4th Down Efficiency
11
17
RZ Efficiency
20
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/09
-14
L
L
O
11/23
-20
L
L
U
11/30
1
W
W
O
12/07
-14
L
L
U
12/14
-8
L
W
U
12/18
8
W
W
U
12/28
-6
L
W
O
09/13
-11
L
L
U
09/20
3
W
W
O
09/27
-34
L
L
O
IND logo

Colts

6-4
SU
3-6-1
ATS
1-8-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/07
1
W
L
U
12/14
7
W
P
U
12/21
-35
L
L
U
12/28
17
W
W
U
01/04
16
W
W
U
01/11
11
W
W
U
01/18
-38
L
L
P
09/13
-13
L
L
U
09/21
-13
L
L
U
09/27
2
W
L
O