JAXJaguars
1-2
13
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
016
INDColts
1-2
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Jaguars
3
10
0
0
0
13
Colts
3
7
0
3
3
16
Spread
+4
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
431
326
Total Plays
79
74
Yards / Play
5.5
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.10
Passing Yards
289
266
Comp/Att
28/50(56%)
30/47(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
5.7
EPA / Pass
+0.02
+0.07
Rushing Yards
142
60
Rush Attempts
28
24
Yards / Rush
5.1
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.67
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
22
Passing 1st downs
15
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
39%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
18
15
Red Zone %
33%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-11.89
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-9
-16
Sack EPA
-2.12
-4.59
Penalties
13
4
Penalty Yards
92
45
Penalty EPA
-13.62
-5.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model68.8%
Spread Pick
Colts-4.0
Expected Value
+4.0%
Cover Probability
52.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+172
Home nfelo
1,517
Away nfelo
1,345
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-56.3
Home QB Adjustment
-55.8
Away QB Adjustment
+0.5
Market Regression
-70.9
Final Difference
137.1
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.5
M. Hasselbeck
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-55.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
25
Yards / Game
17
27
Passing Yards / Game
6
23
Rushing Yards / Game
27
25
EPA
EPA / Play
24
14
EPA / Pass
19
18
EPA / Rush
30
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
15
Interceptions / Game
26
6
Fumbles / Game
15
15
Turnover EPA / Game
4
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
19
4th Down Efficiency
13
30
RZ Efficiency
18
26
Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
31
Yards / Game
28
24
Passing Yards / Game
20
32
Rushing Yards / Game
29
15
EPA
EPA / Play
27
18
EPA / Pass
25
26
EPA / Rush
32
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
4
Interceptions / Game
28
26
Fumbles / Game
15
15
Turnover EPA / Game
3
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
31
4th Down Efficiency
11
17
RZ Efficiency
20
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Colts
6-4
SU
3-6-1
ATS
1-8-1
O/U