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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ colts week 10, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
2-6
17
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
3
INDColts
0-9
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
0
7
7
17
Colts
0
3
0
0
3

Spread

JAX logo
-3

Total

UNDER
37.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
251
212
Total Plays
64
57
Yards / Play
3.9
3.7
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.42
Passing Yards
110
128
Comp/Att
14/21(67%)
20/29(69%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
4.4
EPA / Pass
-0.06
-0.51
Rushing Yards
141
84
Rush Attempts
41
23
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
18
13
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
9
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
40%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.60
-13.60
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-8
-33
Sack EPA
+0.50
-8.07
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
55
40
Penalty EPA
-5.98
-4.38

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
JAX logo
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model58.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-14
Home nfelo
1,398
Away nfelo
1,367
Home Field
+7.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-52.4
Home QB Adjustment
-53.5
Away QB Adjustment
-1.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-57.2
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

B. Gabbert headshot

B. Gabbert

Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-1.1
Value
Ptile
09/25
-5.1
18
10/02
-7.5
7
10/09
-1.4
41
10/16
-6.3
13
10/24
-8.0
6
10/30
-8.7
4
C. Painter headshot

C. Painter

Proj. Value
-4.3
Team Elo Adj
-53.5
Value
Ptile
10/03
-1.4
41
10/09
4.3
78
10/16
0.6
56
10/23
-6.7
11
10/30
-1.6
38
11/06
-8.5
5

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Jaguars logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
28
28
Yards / Game
32
24
Passing Yards / Game
31
20
Rushing Yards / Game
11
29

EPA

EPA / Play
30
25
EPA / Pass
32
29
EPA / Rush
25
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
18
Interceptions / Game
17
31
Fumbles / Game
17
18
Turnover EPA / Game
25
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
31
4th Down Efficiency
23
23
RZ Efficiency
20
31
Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Colts logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
28
10
Yards / Game
30
5
Passing Yards / Game
27
9
Rushing Yards / Game
26
9

EPA

EPA / Play
31
6
EPA / Pass
28
13
EPA / Rush
30
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
9
Interceptions / Game
13
15
Fumbles / Game
31
12
Turnover EPA / Game
5
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
15
4th Down Efficiency
20
19
RZ Efficiency
27
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/26
-3
L
L
U
01/02
-17
L
L
O
09/11
2
W
W
U
09/18
-29
L
L
U
09/25
-6
L
L
U
10/02
-13
L
L
U
10/09
-10
L
L
O
10/16
-4
L
W
U
10/24
5
W
W
U
10/30
-10
L
P
U
IND logo

Colts

0-10
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/08
-1
L
L
U
09/11
-27
L
L
U
09/18
-8
L
L
O
09/25
-3
L
W
O
10/03
-7
L
W
O
10/09
-4
L
L
O
10/16
-10
L
L
O
10/23
-55
L
L
O
10/30
-17
L
L
U
11/06
-24
L
L
U