JAXJaguars
2-6
17
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
03
INDColts
0-9
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
0
7
7
17
Colts
0
3
0
0
3
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
251
212
Total Plays
64
57
Yards / Play
3.9
3.7
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.42
Passing Yards
110
128
Comp/Att
14/21(67%)
20/29(69%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
4.4
EPA / Pass
-0.06
-0.51
Rushing Yards
141
84
Rush Attempts
41
23
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
13
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
9
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
40%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.60
-13.60
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-8
-33
Sack EPA
+0.50
-8.07
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
55
40
Penalty EPA
-5.98
-4.38
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
Colts+3.0
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-11
Home nfelo
1,401
Away nfelo
1,367
Home Field
+7.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-52.4
Home QB Adjustment
-53.5
Away QB Adjustment
-1.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-46.3
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-1.1
C. Painter
Proj. Value
-4.3
Team Elo Adj
-53.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
28
Yards / Game
32
24
Passing Yards / Game
31
20
Rushing Yards / Game
11
29
EPA
EPA / Play
30
25
EPA / Pass
32
29
EPA / Rush
25
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
18
Interceptions / Game
17
31
Fumbles / Game
17
18
Turnover EPA / Game
25
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
31
4th Down Efficiency
23
23
RZ Efficiency
20
31
Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
10
Yards / Game
30
5
Passing Yards / Game
27
9
Rushing Yards / Game
26
9
EPA
EPA / Play
31
6
EPA / Pass
28
13
EPA / Rush
30
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
9
Interceptions / Game
13
15
Fumbles / Game
31
12
Turnover EPA / Game
5
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
15
4th Down Efficiency
20
19
RZ Efficiency
27
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Colts
0-10
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U