JAXJaguars
3-5
26
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
029
INDColts
3-5
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
9
7
3
26
Colts
14
15
0
0
29
Spread
3
P
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
415
368
Total Plays
73
53
Yards / Play
5.7
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.21
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
27/39(69%)
21/29(72%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.44
+0.47
Rushing Yards
91
83
Rush Attempts
34
24
Yards / Rush
2.7
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.20
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
17
Passing 1st downs
16
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
53%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
9
6
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-2.78
-4.25
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
61
45
Penalty EPA
-6.96
-3.00
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+42
Home nfelo
1,470
Away nfelo
1,492
Home Field
+23.5
Base HFA
+57.8
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
+16.6
Away Bye Adj
-45.0
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+41.6
Home QB Adjustment
+35.1
Away QB Adjustment
-6.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-6.4
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+35.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
8
Yards / Game
27
11
Passing Yards / Game
31
4
Rushing Yards / Game
20
9
EPA
EPA / Play
30
8
EPA / Pass
30
6
EPA / Rush
23
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
31
Interceptions / Game
17
13
Fumbles / Game
32
12
Turnover EPA / Game
8
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
18
4th Down Efficiency
27
7
RZ Efficiency
31
11
Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
4
Yards / Game
7
5
Passing Yards / Game
24
5
Rushing Yards / Game
16
20
EPA
EPA / Play
10
6
EPA / Pass
10
7
EPA / Rush
18
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
2
Interceptions / Game
22
23
Fumbles / Game
21
28
Turnover EPA / Game
9
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
14
4th Down Efficiency
19
1
RZ Efficiency
7
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Colts
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U