JAXJaguars
4-11
10
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
030
INDColts
10-5
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
3
0
7
10
Colts
17
3
7
3
30
Spread
-11.5
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
350
379
Total Plays
70
70
Yards / Play
5.0
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.16
+0.14
Passing Yards
308
299
Comp/Att
30/51(59%)
29/41(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.10
+0.26
Rushing Yards
42
80
Rush Attempts
16
28
Yards / Rush
2.6
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.45
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
23
Passing 1st downs
17
17
Rushing 1st downs
2
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
21%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.82
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-23
-8
Sack EPA
-4.63
-1.68
Penalties
5
2
Penalty Yards
50
--
Penalty EPA
-5.78
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-11.5
Current
-11.5
Model
-11.5
Win Probability
Market82.6%
Model82.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+301
Home nfelo
1,496
Away nfelo
1,246
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-4.1
Home QB Adjustment
+20.7
Away QB Adjustment
+24.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
270.6
Model Spread
-11.5
Quarterbacks
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+24.9
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+20.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
14
Yards / Game
31
22
Passing Yards / Game
20
21
Rushing Yards / Game
31
30
EPA
EPA / Play
31
20
EPA / Pass
32
21
EPA / Rush
30
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
27
Interceptions / Game
27
21
Fumbles / Game
4
14
Turnover EPA / Game
10
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
23
4th Down Efficiency
20
18
RZ Efficiency
32
30
Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
28
Yards / Game
11
26
Passing Yards / Game
11
19
Rushing Yards / Game
21
29
EPA
EPA / Play
10
27
EPA / Pass
16
31
EPA / Rush
6
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
2
Interceptions / Game
17
27
Fumbles / Game
2
16
Turnover EPA / Game
22
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
26
4th Down Efficiency
22
30
RZ Efficiency
10
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Colts
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U