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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ colts week 17, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
4-11
10
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
30
INDColts
10-5
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
3
0
7
10
Colts
17
3
7
3
30

Spread

IND logo
-11.5

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
350
379
Total Plays
70
70
Yards / Play
5.0
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.16
+0.14
Passing Yards
308
299
Comp/Att
30/51(59%)
29/41(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.10
+0.26
Rushing Yards
42
80
Rush Attempts
16
28
Yards / Rush
2.6
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.45
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
19
23
Passing 1st downs
17
17
Rushing 1st downs
2
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
21%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.82
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-23
-8
Sack EPA
-4.63
-1.68
Penalties
5
2
Penalty Yards
50
--
Penalty EPA
-5.78
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-11.5
Current
-11.5
Model
-11.5

Win Probability

Market82.6%
Model82.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+298
Home nfelo
1,493
Away nfelo
1,247
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-4.1
Home QB Adjustment
+20.7
Away QB Adjustment
+24.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
270.6
Model Spread
-11.5

Quarterbacks

C. Henne headshot

C. Henne

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+24.9
Value
Ptile
10/13
-3.1
31
10/20
-5.9
15
10/27
3.2
72
11/10
-8.0
8
11/17
-1.6
42
11/24
-1.6
41
12/01
-2.5
36
12/05
-0.7
46
12/15
-3.1
30
12/22
1.1
58
A. Luck headshot

A. Luck

Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+20.7
Value
Ptile
10/14
-3.5
28
10/20
5.8
86
11/03
-0.7
46
11/10
-1.9
40
11/14
3.9
76
11/24
-1.5
43
12/01
-5.8
15
12/08
13.2
99
12/15
0.6
54
12/22
2.6
68

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Jaguars logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
32
14
Yards / Game
31
22
Passing Yards / Game
20
21
Rushing Yards / Game
31
30

EPA

EPA / Play
31
20
EPA / Pass
32
21
EPA / Rush
30
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
27
Interceptions / Game
27
21
Fumbles / Game
4
14
Turnover EPA / Game
10
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
23
4th Down Efficiency
20
18
RZ Efficiency
32
30
Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Colts logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
10
28
Yards / Game
11
26
Passing Yards / Game
11
19
Rushing Yards / Game
21
29

EPA

EPA / Play
10
27
EPA / Pass
16
31
EPA / Rush
6
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
2
Interceptions / Game
17
27
Fumbles / Game
2
16
Turnover EPA / Game
22
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
26
4th Down Efficiency
22
30
RZ Efficiency
10
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/13
-16
L
W
O
10/20
-18
L
L
U
10/27
-32
L
L
O
11/10
2
W
W
O
11/17
-13
L
L
O
11/24
7
W
W
U
12/01
4
W
W
O
12/05
7
W
W
O
12/15
-7
L
L
O
12/22
-4
L
P
U
IND logo

Colts

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/14
-10
L
L
U
10/20
6
W
W
O
11/03
3
W
W
O
11/10
-30
L
L
O
11/14
3
W
W
O
11/24
-29
L
L
O
12/01
8
W
W
U
12/08
-14
L
L
O
12/15
22
W
W
U
12/22
16
W
W
U