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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ colts week 17, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
3-12
20
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
24
INDColts
7-8
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
10
7
0
3
20
Colts
0
3
14
7
24

Spread

JAX logo
+5.5

Total

UNDER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
470
384
Total Plays
71
66
Yards / Play
6.6
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.05
Passing Yards
288
290
Comp/Att
25/39(64%)
24/40(60%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.01
+0.12
Rushing Yards
182
94
Rush Attempts
30
22
Yards / Rush
6.1
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
23
24
Passing 1st downs
15
18
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
29%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-10.51
-9.74
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-13
-31
Sack EPA
-10.51
-4.16
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
54
35
Penalty EPA
-7.17
-2.35

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+159
Home nfelo
1,486
Away nfelo
1,405
Home Field
+52.1
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
-26.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+26.2
Home QB Adjustment
+27.8
Away QB Adjustment
+1.6
Market Regression
-10.5
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

R. Bortles headshot

R. Bortles

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.6
Value
Ptile
10/23
-3.2
25
10/27
6.5
88
11/06
2.1
65
11/13
2.2
65
11/20
-2.3
31
11/27
2.2
66
12/04
-3.6
23
12/11
-0.3
46
12/18
-8.9
4
12/24
3.1
73
A. Luck headshot

A. Luck

Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+27.8
Value
Ptile
10/09
2.2
66
10/16
4.1
80
10/23
8.2
93
10/30
-3.0
27
11/06
-2.2
32
11/20
-1.2
39
12/05
10.2
96
12/11
-0.1
47
12/18
6.7
89
12/24
4.1
79

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Jaguars logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
25
21
Yards / Game
22
30
Passing Yards / Game
11
22
Rushing Yards / Game
23
25

EPA

EPA / Play
24
25
EPA / Pass
28
25
EPA / Rush
25
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
5
Interceptions / Game
21
29
Fumbles / Game
27
17
Turnover EPA / Game
10
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
23
4th Down Efficiency
25
8
RZ Efficiency
11
6
Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Colts logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
7
24
Yards / Game
9
6
Passing Yards / Game
7
1
Rushing Yards / Game
24
18

EPA

EPA / Play
8
21
EPA / Pass
11
9
EPA / Rush
18
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
18
Interceptions / Game
18
32
Fumbles / Game
7
24
Turnover EPA / Game
8
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
9
4th Down Efficiency
22
12
RZ Efficiency
3
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/23
-17
L
L
O
10/27
-14
L
L
O
11/06
-5
L
W
U
11/13
-3
L
L
O
11/20
-7
L
L
U
11/27
-7
L
W
O
12/04
-10
L
L
U
12/11
-9
L
L
O
12/18
-1
L
W
O
12/24
21
W
W
O
IND logo

Colts

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/16
-3
L
P
O
10/23
8
W
W
O
10/30
-16
L
L
U
11/06
5
W
W
O
11/20
7
W
W
U
11/24
-21
L
L
U
12/05
31
W
W
O
12/11
-5
L
L
U
12/18
28
W
W
U
12/24
-8
L
L
O