JAXJaguars
3-12
20
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
024
INDColts
7-8
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
10
7
0
3
20
Colts
0
3
14
7
24
Spread
+5.5
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
470
384
Total Plays
71
66
Yards / Play
6.6
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.05
Passing Yards
288
290
Comp/Att
25/39(64%)
24/40(60%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.01
+0.12
Rushing Yards
182
94
Rush Attempts
30
22
Yards / Rush
6.1
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
24
Passing 1st downs
15
18
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
29%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-10.51
-9.74
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-13
-31
Sack EPA
-10.51
-4.16
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
54
35
Penalty EPA
-7.17
-2.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+160
Home nfelo
1,486
Away nfelo
1,403
Home Field
+51.5
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+26.2
Home QB Adjustment
+27.8
Away QB Adjustment
+1.6
Market Regression
-10.5
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.6
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+27.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
21
Yards / Game
22
30
Passing Yards / Game
11
22
Rushing Yards / Game
23
25
EPA
EPA / Play
24
25
EPA / Pass
28
25
EPA / Rush
25
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
5
Interceptions / Game
21
29
Fumbles / Game
27
17
Turnover EPA / Game
10
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
23
4th Down Efficiency
25
8
RZ Efficiency
11
6
Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
24
Yards / Game
9
6
Passing Yards / Game
7
1
Rushing Yards / Game
24
18
EPA
EPA / Play
8
21
EPA / Pass
11
9
EPA / Rush
18
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
18
Interceptions / Game
18
32
Fumbles / Game
7
24
Turnover EPA / Game
8
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
9
4th Down Efficiency
22
12
RZ Efficiency
3
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Colts
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U