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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ cowboys week 6, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
3-2
7
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
40
DALCowboys
2-3
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
0
7
0
7
Cowboys
10
14
6
10
40

Spread

DAL logo
+3

Total

OVER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
204
378
Total Plays
47
72
Yards / Play
4.3
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.55
+0.19
Passing Yards
139
172
Comp/Att
15/26(58%)
17/27(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
6.4
EPA / Pass
-0.73
+0.07
Rushing Yards
65
206
Rush Attempts
18
42
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.13
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
10
23
Passing 1st downs
7
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
36%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
17
Red Zone %
NaN%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
--
5
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-11.92
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-10
-11
Sack EPA
-4.89
-4.94
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
30
--
Penalty EPA
-5.29
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
JAX logo
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-3.0
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model50.3%
Spread Pick
DAL logo
Cowboys+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.9%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+58
Home nfelo
1,520
Away nfelo
1,527
Home Field
+88.0
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-22.8
Home QB Adjustment
-14.9
Away QB Adjustment
+7.8
Market Regression
-19.3
Final Difference
-2.0
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

R. Bortles headshot

R. Bortles

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+7.8
Value
Ptile
12/24
2.7
72
12/31
-10.0
3
01/07
0.9
59
01/14
3.3
77
01/21
0.8
57
09/09
-1.3
37
09/16
11.0
97
09/23
-3.9
23
09/30
8.3
92
10/07
-4.1
21
R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
-14.9
Value
Ptile
11/30
-1.0
45
12/10
7.7
93
12/17
-2.3
37
12/24
-7.4
10
12/31
0.1
53
09/09
-6.7
11
09/16
2.4
66
09/23
-8.1
8
09/30
0.9
52
10/07
-4.0
22

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Jaguars logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
31
7
Yards / Game
27
8
Passing Yards / Game
31
16
Rushing Yards / Game
20
8

EPA

EPA / Play
30
12
EPA / Pass
30
19
EPA / Rush
23
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
7
Interceptions / Game
17
27
Fumbles / Game
32
12
Turnover EPA / Game
8
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
24
4th Down Efficiency
27
16
RZ Efficiency
31
7
Cowboys Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Cowboys logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
21
4
Yards / Game
22
5
Passing Yards / Game
15
5
Rushing Yards / Game
10
20

EPA

EPA / Play
19
6
EPA / Pass
17
7
EPA / Rush
7
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
2
Interceptions / Game
4
23
Fumbles / Game
13
28
Turnover EPA / Game
25
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
14
4th Down Efficiency
10
1
RZ Efficiency
26
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
-11
L
L
O
12/31
-5
L
L
U
01/07
7
W
L
U
01/14
3
W
W
O
01/21
-4
L
W
U
09/09
5
W
W
U
09/16
11
W
W
O
09/23
-3
L
L
U
09/30
19
W
W
O
10/07
-16
L
L
U
DAL logo

Cowboys

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/30
24
W
W
O
12/10
20
W
W
U
12/17
3
W
P
U
12/24
-9
L
L
U
12/31
6
W
W
U
09/09
-8
L
L
U
09/16
7
W
W
U
09/23
-11
L
L
U
09/30
2
W
L
O
10/07
-3
L
W
U