JAXJaguars
3-2
7
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
040
DALCowboys
2-3
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
0
7
0
7
Cowboys
10
14
6
10
40
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
204
378
Total Plays
47
72
Yards / Play
4.3
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.55
+0.19
Passing Yards
139
172
Comp/Att
15/26(58%)
17/27(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
6.4
EPA / Pass
-0.73
+0.07
Rushing Yards
65
206
Rush Attempts
18
42
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.13
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
23
Passing 1st downs
7
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
36%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
17
Red Zone %
NaN%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
--
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-11.92
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-10
-11
Sack EPA
-4.89
-4.94
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
30
--
Penalty EPA
-5.29
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-3.0
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model50.5%
Spread Pick
Cowboys+3.0
Expected Value
+8.9%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+55
Home nfelo
1,518
Away nfelo
1,528
Home Field
+87.0
Base HFA
+56.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
+10.2
Net QB Adjustment
-22.8
Home QB Adjustment
-14.9
Away QB Adjustment
+7.8
Market Regression
-19.2
Final Difference
-3.5
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+7.8
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
-14.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
7
Yards / Game
27
8
Passing Yards / Game
31
16
Rushing Yards / Game
20
8
EPA
EPA / Play
30
12
EPA / Pass
30
19
EPA / Rush
23
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
7
Interceptions / Game
17
27
Fumbles / Game
32
12
Turnover EPA / Game
8
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
24
4th Down Efficiency
27
16
RZ Efficiency
31
7
Cowboys Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
4
Yards / Game
22
5
Passing Yards / Game
15
5
Rushing Yards / Game
10
20
EPA
EPA / Play
19
6
EPA / Pass
17
7
EPA / Rush
7
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
2
Interceptions / Game
4
23
Fumbles / Game
13
28
Turnover EPA / Game
25
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
14
4th Down Efficiency
10
1
RZ Efficiency
26
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Cowboys
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-8
O/U