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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ dolphins week 1, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
-
17
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
91°F
10 mph
20
MIADolphins
-
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
91°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
10
0
0
17
Dolphins
0
7
7
6
20

Spread

JAX logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
267
400
Total Plays
50
65
Yards / Play
5.3
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.01
Passing Yards
139
319
Comp/Att
12/21(57%)
23/37(62%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
8.6
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.12
Rushing Yards
128
81
Rush Attempts
26
25
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.35
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
17
18
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
20%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
16
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.91
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-23
-19
Sack EPA
-3.75
-3.82
Penalties
8
9
Penalty Yards
71
103
Penalty EPA
-6.60
-9.40

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+109
Home nfelo
1,581
Away nfelo
1,517
Home Field
+46.3
Base HFA
+46.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-1.1
Home QB Adjustment
+1.5
Away QB Adjustment
+2.6
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.6
Value
Ptile
10/19
6.6
89
10/29
1.8
61
11/12
-9.8
3
11/19
9.7
97
11/26
4.6
79
12/04
5.8
85
12/10
-3.4
27
12/17
5.4
84
12/24
-5.3
17
01/07
2.4
66
T. Tagovailoa headshot

T. Tagovailoa

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.5
Value
Ptile
11/05
-1.8
37
11/19
4.2
77
11/24
-1.7
39
12/03
4.8
81
12/11
-3.2
28
12/17
3.5
73
12/24
4.4
77
12/31
-1.8
38
01/07
-2.0
34
01/13
0.5
52

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Jaguars logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
26
9
Yards / Game
25
6
Passing Yards / Game
26
7
Rushing Yards / Game
25
8

EPA

EPA / Play
18
11
EPA / Pass
20
12
EPA / Rush
16
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
16
Interceptions / Game
22
22
Fumbles / Game
17
19
Turnover EPA / Game
23
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
5
4th Down Efficiency
20
6
RZ Efficiency
13
5
Dolphins Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Dolphins logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
22
27
Yards / Game
18
31
Passing Yards / Game
17
26
Rushing Yards / Game
21
24

EPA

EPA / Play
21
31
EPA / Pass
13
32
EPA / Rush
31
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
25
Interceptions / Game
10
30
Fumbles / Game
22
31
Turnover EPA / Game
12
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
26
4th Down Efficiency
25
17
RZ Efficiency
16
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/29
10
W
W
U
11/12
-31
L
L
U
11/19
20
W
W
O
11/26
3
W
W
U
12/04
-3
L
L
O
12/10
-4
L
L
O
12/17
-16
L
L
U
12/24
-18
L
L
U
12/31
26
W
W
U
01/07
-8
L
L
O
MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/05
-7
L
L
U
11/19
7
W
L
U
11/24
21
W
W
O
12/03
30
W
W
O
12/11
-1
L
L
O
12/17
30
W
W
U
12/24
2
W
W
U
12/31
-37
L
L
O
01/07
-7
L
L
U
01/13
-19
L
L
U