JAXJaguars
-
17
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
91°F
10 mph
20
MIADolphins
-
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
91°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
10
0
0
17
Dolphins
0
7
7
6
20
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
267
400
Total Plays
50
65
Yards / Play
5.3
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.01
Passing Yards
139
319
Comp/Att
12/21(57%)
23/37(62%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
8.6
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.12
Rushing Yards
128
81
Rush Attempts
26
25
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.35
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
18
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
20%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
16
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.91
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-23
-19
Sack EPA
-3.75
-3.82
Penalties
8
9
Penalty Yards
71
103
Penalty EPA
-6.60
-9.40
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+111
Home nfelo
1,581
Away nfelo
1,516
Home Field
+46.4
Base HFA
+46.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-1.1
Home QB Adjustment
+1.5
Away QB Adjustment
+2.6
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
T. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+2.6
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
9
Yards / Game
25
6
Passing Yards / Game
26
7
Rushing Yards / Game
25
8
EPA
EPA / Play
18
11
EPA / Pass
20
12
EPA / Rush
16
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
16
Interceptions / Game
22
22
Fumbles / Game
17
19
Turnover EPA / Game
23
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
5
4th Down Efficiency
20
6
RZ Efficiency
13
5
Dolphins Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
27
Yards / Game
18
31
Passing Yards / Game
17
26
Rushing Yards / Game
21
24
EPA
EPA / Play
21
31
EPA / Pass
13
32
EPA / Rush
31
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
25
Interceptions / Game
10
30
Fumbles / Game
22
31
Turnover EPA / Game
12
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
26
4th Down Efficiency
25
17
RZ Efficiency
16
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Dolphins
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U