JAXJaguars
1-0
3
TBD
MetLife Stadium
66°F
12 mph
32
NYJJets
1-0
TBD
MetLife Stadium
66°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
0
0
0
3
Jets
7
6
14
3
30
Spread
-9
Total
UNDER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
203
283
Total Plays
54
57
Yards / Play
3.8
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.56
-0.04
Passing Yards
91
182
Comp/Att
11/25(44%)
17/24(71%)
Yards / Pass
3.6
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.99
+0.17
Rushing Yards
112
101
Rush Attempts
27
32
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.23
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
15
Passing 1st downs
6
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
25%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
NaN%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
--
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
4
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-20.35
-5.85
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-20
--
Sack EPA
-1.51
-0.75
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
50
60
Penalty EPA
-8.12
-6.59
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+238
Home nfelo
1,620
Away nfelo
1,483
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+17.0
Home QB Adjustment
+3.4
Away QB Adjustment
-13.5
Market Regression
-18.6
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
L. McCown
Proj. Value
-3.6
Team Elo Adj
-13.5
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+3.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
19
Yards / Game
32
4
Passing Yards / Game
31
7
Rushing Yards / Game
11
14
EPA
EPA / Play
30
8
EPA / Pass
32
4
EPA / Rush
25
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
13
Interceptions / Game
17
9
Fumbles / Game
17
2
Turnover EPA / Game
25
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
2
4th Down Efficiency
23
1
RZ Efficiency
20
9
Jets Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
10
Yards / Game
26
5
Passing Yards / Game
18
9
Rushing Yards / Game
22
9
EPA
EPA / Play
21
6
EPA / Pass
25
13
EPA / Rush
13
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
9
Interceptions / Game
23
15
Fumbles / Game
29
12
Turnover EPA / Game
2
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
15
4th Down Efficiency
20
19
RZ Efficiency
4
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Jets
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U