JAXJaguars
2-5
23
TBD
MetLife Stadium
56°F
10 mph
28
NYJJets
4-3
TBD
MetLife Stadium
56°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
7
3
10
23
Jets
14
0
7
7
28
Spread
+7.5
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
436
290
Total Plays
65
64
Yards / Play
6.7
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.03
Passing Yards
338
261
Comp/Att
24/40(60%)
21/34(62%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
7.7
EPA / Pass
+0.00
+0.25
Rushing Yards
98
29
Rush Attempts
19
28
Yards / Rush
5.2
1.0
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.41
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
14
Passing 1st downs
16
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
44%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-12.29
+4.35
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-43
-11
Sack EPA
-14.59
-4.03
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
30
--
Penalty EPA
-3.22
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+177
Home nfelo
1,500
Away nfelo
1,361
Home Field
+35.3
Base HFA
+61.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.1
Surface Adj
+21.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.5
Home QB Adjustment
+15.9
Away QB Adjustment
+13.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+13.4
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+15.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
7
Yards / Game
17
4
Passing Yards / Game
6
9
Rushing Yards / Game
27
2
EPA
EPA / Play
24
4
EPA / Pass
19
9
EPA / Rush
30
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
31
Interceptions / Game
26
5
Fumbles / Game
15
12
Turnover EPA / Game
4
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
3
4th Down Efficiency
13
21
RZ Efficiency
18
1
Jets Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
31
Yards / Game
10
24
Passing Yards / Game
15
32
Rushing Yards / Game
10
15
EPA
EPA / Play
17
18
EPA / Pass
9
26
EPA / Rush
15
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
4
Interceptions / Game
22
26
Fumbles / Game
15
15
Turnover EPA / Game
24
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
31
4th Down Efficiency
25
17
RZ Efficiency
3
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jets
6-4
SU
7-2-1
ATS
5-5
O/U