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  1. nfelo...
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  3. jaguars @ jets week 9, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
2-5
23
TBD
MetLife Stadium
56°F
10 mph
28
NYJJets
4-3
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
56°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
7
3
10
23
Jets
14
0
7
7
28

Spread

JAX logo
+7.5

Total

OVER
42

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
436
290
Total Plays
65
64
Yards / Play
6.7
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.03
Passing Yards
338
261
Comp/Att
24/40(60%)
21/34(62%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
7.7
EPA / Pass
+0.00
+0.25
Rushing Yards
98
29
Rush Attempts
19
28
Yards / Rush
5.2
1.0
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.41
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
19
14
Passing 1st downs
16
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
44%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-12.29
+4.35
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-43
-11
Sack EPA
-14.59
-4.03
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
30
--
Penalty EPA
-3.22
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+177
Home nfelo
1,500
Away nfelo
1,361
Home Field
+35.3
Base HFA
+61.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.1
Surface Adj
+21.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.5
Home QB Adjustment
+15.9
Away QB Adjustment
+13.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

R. Bortles headshot

R. Bortles

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+13.4
Value
Ptile
12/14
-12.0
1
12/18
-3.9
27
12/28
-5.8
16
09/13
-7.8
5
09/20
5.1
82
09/27
-1.7
37
10/04
3.5
76
10/11
2.6
69
10/18
-0.0
50
10/25
-5.0
16
R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+15.9
Value
Ptile
11/30
15.5
100
12/07
-0.9
44
12/14
-4.4
24
09/13
0.1
51
09/21
2.1
65
09/27
-1.7
38
10/04
-0.7
47
10/18
6.9
90
10/25
3.5
76
11/01
-4.4
18

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Jets Defense
Jaguars logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
14
7
Yards / Game
17
4
Passing Yards / Game
6
9
Rushing Yards / Game
27
2

EPA

EPA / Play
24
4
EPA / Pass
19
9
EPA / Rush
30
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
31
Interceptions / Game
26
5
Fumbles / Game
15
12
Turnover EPA / Game
4
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
3
4th Down Efficiency
13
21
RZ Efficiency
18
1
Jets Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Jets logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
10
31
Yards / Game
10
24
Passing Yards / Game
15
32
Rushing Yards / Game
10
15

EPA

EPA / Play
17
18
EPA / Pass
9
26
EPA / Rush
15
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
4
Interceptions / Game
22
26
Fumbles / Game
15
15
Turnover EPA / Game
24
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
31
4th Down Efficiency
25
17
RZ Efficiency
3
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/14
-8
L
W
U
12/18
8
W
W
U
12/28
-6
L
W
O
09/13
-11
L
L
U
09/20
3
W
W
O
09/27
-34
L
L
O
10/04
-3
L
W
U
10/11
-7
L
L
O
10/18
-11
L
L
O
10/25
3
W
W
O
NYJ logo

Jets

6-4
SU
7-2-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/14
5
W
W
U
12/21
-1
L
W
U
12/28
13
W
W
O
09/13
21
W
W
O
09/21
13
W
W
U
09/27
-7
L
L
U
10/04
13
W
W
U
10/18
14
W
W
O
10/25
-7
L
P
O
11/01
-14
L
L
O