JAXJaguars
2-12
21
TBD
MetLife Stadium
47°F
026
NYJJets
3-11
TBD
MetLife Stadium
47°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
9
3
6
21
Jets
6
7
3
10
26
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
384
373
Total Plays
73
59
Yards / Play
5.3
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.15
+0.22
Passing Yards
252
100
Comp/Att
26/40(65%)
14/22(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
4.5
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.03
Rushing Yards
132
273
Rush Attempts
32
36
Yards / Rush
4.1
7.6
EPA / Rush
+0.07
+0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
18
Passing 1st downs
16
7
Rushing 1st downs
8
11
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
46%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.60
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-28
-2
Sack EPA
-7.60
-1.76
Penalties
2
7
Penalty Yards
--
81
Penalty EPA
--
-7.88
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+73
Home nfelo
1,322
Away nfelo
1,289
Home Field
+49.3
Base HFA
+36.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-8.5
Home QB Adjustment
-33.3
Away QB Adjustment
-24.8
Market Regression
+13.3
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
T. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-24.8
Z. Wilson
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-33.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
32
Yards / Game
27
32
Passing Yards / Game
16
16
Rushing Yards / Game
22
29
EPA
EPA / Play
29
32
EPA / Pass
27
32
EPA / Rush
21
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
4
Interceptions / Game
26
30
Fumbles / Game
28
18
Turnover EPA / Game
3
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
27
4th Down Efficiency
10
26
RZ Efficiency
28
19
Jets Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
28
Yards / Game
26
20
Passing Yards / Game
13
7
Rushing Yards / Game
25
22
EPA
EPA / Play
25
31
EPA / Pass
29
31
EPA / Rush
13
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
22
Interceptions / Game
29
30
Fumbles / Game
7
32
Turnover EPA / Game
9
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
25
4th Down Efficiency
23
30
RZ Efficiency
20
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
2-8
O/U
Jets
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U