nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ jets week 16, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

JAX logo
JAXJaguars
2-12
21
TBD
MetLife Stadium
47°F
0
26
NYJJets
3-11
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
47°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
9
3
6
21
Jets
6
7
3
10
26

Spread

NYJ logo
-2.5

Total

OVER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
384
373
Total Plays
73
59
Yards / Play
5.3
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.15
+0.22
Passing Yards
252
100
Comp/Att
26/40(65%)
14/22(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
4.5
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.03
Rushing Yards
132
273
Rush Attempts
32
36
Yards / Rush
4.1
7.6
EPA / Rush
+0.07
+0.26
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
27
18
Passing 1st downs
16
7
Rushing 1st downs
8
11
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
46%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.60
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-28
-2
Sack EPA
-7.60
-1.76
Penalties
2
7
Penalty Yards
--
81
Penalty EPA
--
-7.88

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+77
Home nfelo
1,321
Away nfelo
1,285
Home Field
+49.2
Base HFA
+36.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-8.5
Home QB Adjustment
-33.3
Away QB Adjustment
-24.8
Market Regression
+13.3
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
-24.8
Value
Ptile
10/10
1.7
65
10/17
0.9
60
10/31
-1.7
40
11/07
-4.8
20
11/14
-7.0
11
11/21
-4.5
22
11/28
-3.3
29
12/05
-4.5
21
12/12
-12.7
1
12/19
-4.4
22
Z. Wilson headshot

Z. Wilson

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-33.3
Value
Ptile
09/12
-6.8
12
09/19
-11.7
2
09/26
-12.5
1
10/03
-0.3
51
10/10
-8.2
7
10/24
-5.1
19
11/28
-8.1
8
12/05
-1.2
44
12/12
-5.4
17
12/19
-6.2
13

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Jets Defense
Jaguars logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
32
32
Yards / Game
27
32
Passing Yards / Game
16
16
Rushing Yards / Game
22
29

EPA

EPA / Play
29
32
EPA / Pass
27
32
EPA / Rush
21
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
4
Interceptions / Game
26
30
Fumbles / Game
28
18
Turnover EPA / Game
3
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
27
4th Down Efficiency
10
26
RZ Efficiency
28
19
Jets Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Jets logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
28
28
Yards / Game
26
20
Passing Yards / Game
13
7
Rushing Yards / Game
25
22

EPA

EPA / Play
25
31
EPA / Pass
29
31
EPA / Rush
13
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
22
Interceptions / Game
29
30
Fumbles / Game
7
32
Turnover EPA / Game
9
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
25
4th Down Efficiency
23
30
RZ Efficiency
20
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/10
-18
L
L
O
10/17
3
W
W
U
10/31
-24
L
L
U
11/07
3
W
W
U
11/14
-6
L
W
U
11/21
-20
L
L
U
11/28
-7
L
L
U
12/05
-30
L
L
U
12/12
-20
L
L
U
12/19
-14
L
L
O
NYJ logo

Jets

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/10
-7
L
L
O
10/24
-41
L
L
O
10/31
3
W
W
O
11/04
-15
L
L
O
11/14
-28
L
L
O
11/21
-7
L
L
U
11/28
7
W
W
U
12/05
-15
L
L
O
12/12
-21
L
L
U
12/19
-7
L
W
O